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Subject: France global reach is world second now
french stratege    8/8/2009 4:54:41 AM
US readers may have difficulties to consider that but only France has a 100% independant global reach after USA.And far below USA, granted.
 
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french stratege       8/9/2009 11:03:02 AM
I think for the same reason which justify France order of battle, that British will turn themselves to a similar capability with some differences
They will try:
1)to remove or lower US maintenance and supply dependancy for nuclear, hence huge critics of Trident and huge increase of spending of UK on nuclear R&D
In order to be able like France, to use nuclear threat freely even USA does not agree and try to impose restrictions
2)To get 2 real carriers (plus 6 to 8 Astutes at minimum) to have a significant projection capability with long range aircrafts to be able to do retaliation everywhere.
 
There is a real convergence in capabilities between those two powers with similar GDP and population.
 
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french stratege       8/9/2009 11:28:28 AM
French armed  force future is quite bright for equipment even with a constant 2% GDP spending to respect NATO commitment and our needs.
Indeed we have already done a +20% increase of procurement (in the french definition) this year and per year for the next five years leveraging manpower economy on administration and support.
Procurement in french definition is :
R&D+nuclear weapons manufacturing+spacesystems manufacturing +conventional weapons manufacturing+MCO+infrastructures
R&D will be constant as infrastructure, nuclear weapons manufacturing will diminish until 2030 (when modernisation needs would arise again ) since our SSBN are brand new, as our missiles (M51, ASMP) and nukes and it doesn't need huge investment before 2035.
And after the already +20% increase of annual procurement between 2003 and 2008, from post cold war low between 1997 and 2002
 
In the coming years:
-nuclear spending will diminish from 3,3 billion euros  to less than 2
-Retirement pension spending about 8 billion euros currently will diminish by 2 in a decade due to death of retirees from cold war and colonial era where numbers in army where great.Plus saving on war pensions of 3 B? currently
-We have a further almost 2 billion euros margin in saving on manpower after 2018
It means that we can have a further +20% increase of total procurement post 2015 without spending more on R&D and nuclear which would translate in a +100% increase in manufacturing of conventional weapons in our procurement budget since the low years between 1997 and 2002.
We would spend more in annual conventional procurement than during the cold war but with a reduced army in manpower likely of 250 000 personnels.
 
 
 
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RockyMTNClimber    UK v. French troop projection capacity   8/9/2009 2:49:15 PM
ht***tp://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/europe/ship.htm
 
 
France:   Total force projection capacity: 1,647 troops
2x Foudre, 467 troops each
1x Mistrel Class 460 troops
2x Ouragan Class (Small Amphib) 360 troops each
 
France's one aircraft carrier is not operational at this time
 
UK: Total force projection capacity: 2,500 Royal Marines
1x HMS Ocean Class, 800 Royal Marines
Note: HMS Ocean is Harrier capable in an emergency
1x HMS Albion, 710 Royal Marines
Note: HMS Albion is Harrier capable in an emergency
2x HMS Fearless Class, 1,000 Royal Marines (one of these may have been pulled off line)
Note: HMS Fearless Class are Harrier capable in an emergency
2x HMS Bay Class, 350 Royal Marines each, entering service 2006.
 
UK's one aircraft carrier HMS Invincible is operational.
 
 
What is France going to capture with 1,600 infantry? I don't define 1,600 troops as "independent global reach". 
 
Check Six
 
Rocky
 
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french stratege       8/9/2009 3:09:18 PM
Rocky
First projection capability is not necessarly due to amphibious capabilities.
You can bomb a country without invading it, or deploy heavy forces abroad without need of amphibious ships like it was done for centuries.
It is funny Rocky how you are biased when you compare British and french figures
you wrote:
French: Total force projection capacity: 1,647 troops
LOL
 
Indeed those french capabilities figure are for long terme deployment and cruise in peace time.And you forgot a Mistral (2 build and 1 ordered more)
Surge infantry capability for war operations are different:
Indeed for exemple
The surge capability for a single operation of Mistral class is 900 men+150 men for command Etat major.Translate the following line:
450 passagers (900 pour une courte durée), 150 hommes d'un état-major embarqué
 
Considering tonnage of french ship vs British ones , you could have think that something was anormal.
 
You can apply a factor >2 indeed.In WW2 some transport ship not bigger transported easily thousand men.
Then, our armed force have a partnership with some french transport companies like SCM (Corsican line) for drafting car ferries and RoRo cargos or passenger ships in war time.
A former rapport gave the number of 20 car ferries with provision for war time like reinforcement of access ramp for armor, paid by french army.
Considering all means, we should not have any problems to transport a whole brigade or even two for an amphibious operation to retake an island.
 
 
 
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french stratege       8/9/2009 3:48:34 PM
Rocky
just to give you an other example:
you wrote :
 
2x Ouragan Class (Small Amphib) 360 troops each
 
Let see the Ouragan class in Gulf war (you qualified small):
A single Ouragan has transported 1100 troops in a single rotation between Yanbu and Toulon so more than 2000 miles with part of their heavy equipement.
Le 25 mars, l'Ouragan ramène 1100 hommes de Daguet
 
25th March, Ouragan transport back 1100 men of Daguet division.
Notice in the text, that in the transport convoy you have also Chartres civilian ferries transporting 700 men of first  Spahis régiment and  Casanova ferries transporting 1200 men of 2nd régiment étrangers d'Infanterie of Nimes and 21ème régiment étranger of Fréjus.
 
Notice that this exemple of war time capability (whom exact figures are not public) was 3 time more than the official figure
Indeed the convoy with a single military ship and 2 civilian ships transported in a single rotation 3000 men instead of an official 360 men figure.
 
Multiply easily by 10 the real french capability instead of 2100 men capability (you forgot Tonnerre ship in your transport figure of 1600 men) you computed.
In Falkland war, British transported as well much more men than their official figure and on a very long single distance.
 
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RockyMTNClimber    FS reply   8/9/2009 4:53:17 PM
 
Thank you for your reply. Lets examine what I demonstrated with my post. First, I used a neutral third party source (Global Security.org). I discovered what your navy says it can do with your ships. I used Britain as a competitor because it wouldn't embarrass you as much as some other forces ship counts would. I politely showed you that your nation has a somewhat limited ability to project conventional power. It can send some hundreds of troops into some coastal country, provided that country is within range of your fuel train's supply, or what you can buy locally. Ammo has to be brought from home so You'd need the ability to deliver fresh supplies into the combat theater. If you think that is easily supplied by civilian transport you have to explain how your fairly small navy is going to accomplish that with enemy subs, planes, and warships about. Your ability to sustain combat operations under these conditions, for more than a few weeks, is very questionable. This is because after you have transited with your one battle group, it becomes a one trick pony that has to go home and refit for weeks to months before attempting another sortie.
 
France has very little global reach. This is not to insult the fine men and women of the French military services. They simply aren't designed as globe trotters. Fact trumps you FS. Again. 
 
Check Six
 
Rocky
 
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french stratege       8/9/2009 5:24:38 PM
Rocky
Considering that our 4 Meuse (or Durance) class oilers can carry together 42 000 tons (one fourth each) fuel or kerozen, it should be enough to maintain a single battle group.
To block our maritime traffic protected by french ASW (9 first rank ASW frigates, 6 SSN, 28 ASW aircrafts all with recent sonars), a navy much be stronguer than French especially on SSN side.And I know only 3 navies which has good SSN capability and better than ours and 2 are allies: USA, UK, Russia.
And only Japanese navy has 18 good SSK which have fairly limited capabilities at long range.
From which navy should we fear something? Iranian? Pakistanese? Sudanese? LOL
Remember, we are never at more than 3000 miles from a french territory where supplies have been stockpiled.
I don't see much problem for France to project 30 000 men in Indian Ocean.
 
 
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Herald12345       8/9/2009 6:16:25 PM







The Russians can threaten economic ruin through economic means. All they need is a working fleet of long rrange bombers and submarines, plus the means to deliver ground troops to their objective within the limits of their airpower   As with FS, you confuse a one shot amphibious attack and a very limited carrier presence with POWER PROJECTION. As long as you can isolate your target from using the sea and the air in the selected battlespace, then you can project power into that battle space while denying him the use of the same. There is no way the French could operate off South America in the Brazil example. First they have no business there in AMERICAN waters. Second they can't defend themselves against a Brazil that would instantly have first call on anything they need to sink the CdG and drive the interlopers off. Once that CdG was gone, it would then become a sub hunt to get rid of the "jewels" and then France as a world power is done. Crap dreams of French  "grandeur" come up against US reality.  Even of we were "officially" neutral, unofficiall;y we would so "Suez" any French imperial adventure in the Brazil example that that 1%er ah raised as a hypothetucal.











You may not like to hear it, but a few dozen Bears and Backfires, and short squadron of Akulas with theoir EW weapon loadouts and presence still mean a lot more in the global naval scheme of things than the "mighty French Marine"







Seapower is seapower (presence). The Russians have it, the British have it, (can sustain a blue water fleet) The French don't.



 



Herald









 




I believe FS was answering another poster's (usajoe ?) qustion "what could France do if Brazil invaded French Guyana".

Now if you say that, in the (very hypothetical, given the good relations between France and Brazil) face of a Brazilian invasion of a sovereign French territory... and one that's of strategic importance not only to France but to Europe (space port) then the USA would actively help Brazil fight off a French expeditionary group ?

I suppose they might, if the French were clearly the agressors ("hey, we're bored, let's invade Brazil just for shit and giggles !") but in the (barely more likely) scenario FS was talking about... no. Lest America be viewed clarly as an enemy of Europe (and we're delving even further in Alien Space Bats land...)




And it's rather funny too how FS is pressed by some to justify how France could support operations in this scenario but they're not asking the same about the would-be invader (be it Brazil or Venezuela).

1. It's a violation of the Monroe Doctrine. If you think we are kidding about that, then you don't know what's going on in Washington right now with regard to the PRC bandits and South America. Uoi also don't know the arguments that asffected the ISG during the Falklands War. There was a strong pro-Argentina lobby (Haig) that actually wanted us to boot the British. France had and has NO special relationship to save her. And what makes you think WE would not want one of OUR allies to haver that space port?. Guyanna is not French "territory" Its a colony which as soon as it wants its independence, we wiill be glad to help. Another NASA spaceport.......
2. Its a hypothetical where Brazil invades? The only time the French were chased out of the New World was when they committed some of their usual outrages (Maxmillian in Mexico). Here we posit the usual outrage, like dumping political prisoners in Guyana, or trying their typical African adventurist interventionist crap in the New World by meddling in the Brazilian government.  
 
Done and done. 
 
Herald
 
.
 
 
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Herald12345       8/9/2009 6:54:21 PM

Russia does NOT have "presence"-globally,  It can't project coherent Task Unit and maintain them, globally.  Neither can the PRC or the Indians.  Britain, France, and the US can....Because France has a CVBG and Britain does not, she's second.

 Cam Ranh Bay.

Sure CdG wouldn't last long against the Kola Peninsula or Vladivostok...and FS is silly to think it could.  And it wouldn't last long in the Taiwan Strait...but against the Russians at sea, or the PLAN at sea, or most other navies La France wins. 

How? 
 
 

Why is this so hard to admit?  They have a small but true global reach, a carrier, escorts, SSN's, UnRep, and an ARG.  And that's far more than Russia or the PLAN or the Indians, or the Brazilians, or the Italians can do.  The CdG, when it works, puts the MN in a different league than any other fleet, save the USN.  AEW a/c provide the C4I advantage and the Rafale provides the AAW and ASuW, and Strike Warfare capacity that Harrier Carriers lack.  No one else's fleet, save the USN can face the MN and win, at sea.  The Rafale sees to that, and it's mobile base is the key to that power.

They have no underway replenishment or overseas sustainment.
 

Britain can't deliver the COMBINED power that the Marine National can, again until and IF the CVF comes on-line.  For that matter the USN has trouble delivering much more than 1,000-2,000 Marines via amphibious operations...Right now contingency operations are based on a Marine BATTALION-sized unit securing the immediate objective and then paratroopers and/or commercially delivered follow-on troops supplementing the ARG.  It would be a major undertaking to organize and land a MEB. 

How many Marines are in Afghanistan?
 

France is one level down, it might be a major undertaking to organize and land the Battalion-sized unit, but it could and IF the wind was right could follow up with Para's and troops from the FAR (assuming the acronym hasn't changed).  Sound familiar, it should it the US plan, in miniature.  France could have undertaken Operation Corporate much more easily than the RN, the Foch and Clemenceau saw to that, just as the CdG-when it works- gives France a greater capacity TODAY.

 What capacity? (CREF above) Etentards were not that good against Mirages or Skyhawks and the Squall's don't at the time exist.. 

Bottom-Line: FS can be full of Bull-Sh*the and STILL be right...and he is.  France is Number Two on the sustained, conventional Presence and Power Projection list.

Bottom line, you argue emotion while I crunch numbers (CREF above about the Chuckles). The French were/are nowhere as good as the British in ASW nor were/are they as capable in air-ops land or sea-based even tpday. (CREF CoteD'Ivoire debacle) . 

As for beiing able to operate globally, if you actually read what I said, I said that the Russians can moint a presence in a selected battlespace, and the French cannot. 
 
Example;
 
 
The French Marine better be very careful.........  The US is watching. So is INDIA.
 
 
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french stratege       8/9/2009 7:06:20 PM
France had and has NO special relationship to save her. And what makes you think WE would not want one of OUR allies to haver that space port?. Guyanna is not French "territory" Its a colony which as soon as it wants its independence, we wiill be glad to help. Another NASA spaceport.......
LOL, an Herald provocation.
There is no Monroe doctrine concerning a french territory.
As french as USA can belong to USA (forgot Indians?)
 
Now to respond to your provocation, and if you dare to side Brasilians impeaching us to recover them by conventional means , we would use nuke and first against Brasil.
Indeed here a german analysis:

Scenario No. 3

Scenario 3 covers the possibility of attack on France's overseas territories. It states that these territories are covered by nuclear deterrence without giving any details.
 
And a more recent one

The French nuclear deterrent is intended to cover France?s ?vital interests.? The

1994 White Paper defined them as follows: ?The integrity of the national territory,

including the mainland as well as the overseas departments and territories, the free

exercise of our sovereignty and the protection of the population constitute the core

[of these interests] today.?13

Will USA betray its NATO ally and die for Brasil in a nuclear escalation? I doubt.
I know perfectly that you would say USA would destroy french SSBN and I know you cannot even with Virginia or Seawolf.If we have a doubt that you could destroy them we would do alternate strategy including delivering our tech to any of USA ennemies.
We want this level of silence for our SSBN and we had spend in the last 15 years 18 billions $ to procure 4 new ones, to include an efficient deterrent even USA would attempt to destroy our SSBN in order to prevent us to use them against any country.
We are not Britain who is USA nuke dependant at leat for maintenance since they acknoweldge it officialy.
We are allies of USA but if USA dare to attack or help an attacker of french soil, we will be ennemies.
France has never hidden we would use nuke to recover a french soil wherever it is if conventional means are not enough.
 
 
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