Will Germany rise again??

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ambush 12/7/2008 8:24:27 PM

Germany has got some major problems, although it is the EUs largest and most powerful economy right now.

First, noticed the way Merkel has been sucking up to Putin by her objection to NATO expansion and over Georgia. This is because 43 percent of Germany?s total natural gas consumption coming from Russia. Russia has used many excuses to cutoff or raise the price of that product in the past to gain political leverage and it can do so again. Germany?s economy like almost the rest of the world is in a down turn and can hardly afford and energy crisis right now so it has to yield to Russian pressure

Germany still has an industrial/manufacturing export based economy. While it does turn out electronics, nobody talks about buying German made software or computers. They are competing with the Asian tigers while at the same time they have an increasingly aging population demanding more social services and shrinking population/tax base to finance it. Exports accounting for 45 percent of its GDP, 11 percent for the United States, 29 percent for the United Kingdom, 30 percent for Russia, 28 percent for Italy and 27 percent for France), the German economy could be severely affected by a worldwide recession that undercuts the ability of other countries to buy its products.

They have no central bank to coordinate their response to the economic crisis which unlike the US is not about subprime mortgages but Enron like accounting of bank loans to corporation and the banks overvaluing corporate assets used to secure those loans. Add to this is Balkan/Baltic overexposure. (I know the Germans like to blame the US for their crisis but the German Leadership has a long tradition of blaming others for their problems to appease the masses) Germany has announced a 70 billion euro ($95 billion) bank capitalization plan and up to 400 billion euros ($543 billion) for interbank loan guarantees and a second bailout proposal for real estate giant Hypo to the tune of 50 billion euros ($67.9 Billion). Put this up against a GDP of only about $2.5 Trillion.

Germany?s military while relatively well equipped is been in decline for years like most of Europe.

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Nasty German Idiot 12/8/2008 6:43:21 AM

Past of ineffectual military interventions, in the Balkans, and in Afghanistan and now in Atalanta, I'd say "no." Unless, by rising again you mean drinking lots of beer, and following legalistic rules of engagement that pretty much make their forces less dangerous than the Polizei...then yes German has risen again.

Ineffectual military interventions in the Balkans ? You mean the bombardment of Serbia and forcing them to retreat from Kosovo ? Yes we are still there keeping the Peace with thousands of Troops in Kosovo, same with Bosnia. Any Problem with that ? Or do you want to blame Germany for this ethnical mess that has hang around Europes ass for more than 1000 years ?

I know Nasty German Idiot and others will be unhappy and point out that KSK (?) have been in Afghanistan, and that's all well and good, but the BULK of German forces, pretty much in the Balkans, in Afghanistan, and it seems in the Horn of Africa, are just going to sit around, and get bored, fat, and drunk...make some "shocking" Youtube videos that will get the Greens and the SDP all up in arms, or shout "Sieg Heil" at the wrong visiting Minister and spark Parliamentary outrage...in short, the vast majority of German forces will simply be an occasionally visible political symbol of the "New" Germany's place in the EU world...a world of law, conferences, and legalisms, that may or may not achieve much, but sure does sound good in a Joint Communique from Bruxelles.

I see that you have bought any cheap trash that the uninformed US media (taking / stealing their stuff on Germany and its military from the most incompetent Media on military issues, the German Media ) has thrown out. Now its interesting that even our German Media has written that German Soldiers are allowed 2 cans of beer, which wont make somebody drunk. (Maybe US Soldiers which are not used to Alcohol) There have been at least 3 ships saved last week alone by German Frigates operating in the Horn of Africa, but wow- suprise - US Media dont bring that kind of stuff. (XXXttp://www.newstin.co.uk/tag/uk/91748194)

´Personally, I'm past worrying about Germany rising again...I'd kind of like Germany to simply "man up" and work, in a reasonable way towards a better world, rather than sitting around and when called on it, hiding behind phrases like, "Well would you rather have peaceful Germans or Warlike ones?"

That "manning up" is already happening, although it seems you dont want to recognize it. (XXXttp://www.thefrontierpost.com/News.aspx?ncat=an&nid=1068)

Second: Germany was forced by the Allied Powers to completely abandon its military, and had to convince everybody that it should have at least a kind of defensive militia. For 10 years there was no military at all. (Until 1956) Than, until 1994, Germany had ALL its Units under Nato Command (only the French-German Brigade was to some extend commanded ONLY by German Officers) And only after 1994 had Germany become an Independant nation at all. During the first Gulf-War (1991) Germany simply COULD NOT intervene in Iraq because there was no equipment for foreign mission. In 1999, Germany was still transforming its military from Cold-War to Foreign Mission capable forces. Still EVERYTHING available was send to the Balkans, and Germany for the first time bombed another country after WW2.

Maybe you dont understand that but Germany had to invest 1.5 TRILLION ? for the rebuilding of the German East, and there was no money left to buy fancy military Equipment. The transformation process was started 1996 and will take many more years. Still even you must have heard that Germany will get 60 A-400M (Yes, we only have C-130 Transall at the moment) , has gotten the PZH-2000, a Leopard upgrade (to A6), Fennek, Dingo, Eurofighter, U-212, F-125, F-124, new support ships for long-range fleet operation, Boxer, Puma IFV etc. etc. etc. But it NEEDS TIME. Even now we dont have enough equipment ready for conditions in Afghanistan - (dust resistant helicopters, enough mine-resistant armored vehicles) to fight full capacity without having to fear consequences like the ambushed French Paras encountered some time ago. Such thing wont happen to the German Army.

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JFKY NGI 12/8/2008 11:06:04 AM

You talk about the NUMBERS of troops, funny you're a little short on accomplishments of the troops. Kosovo was won with AMERICAN....not NATO and sure not GERMAN air power. And yes if you consider sitting around in kasernes watching the Kosovars purge the Serbs, or watch the Serbs chase the NATO forces out of north Kosovo to be an accomplishment, then by all means be proud. You've accomplished much...of course it's not restoring Kosovo to anything like a democratic self-rule, unlike Afghanistan or Iraq, but hey you guys went and stood around a lot, and looked stunning in your outfits.

Look Britain has liberated South Iraq and fights in Afghanistan...the longest kill in sniper-land...Canadians at 2,500 metres...the Dutch, they're fighting in Afghanistan...the US we have medals of Honour in both theatres, IIRC. What do you guys have.....900,000 bottles of beer to your credit...oh and some of you shouted "Sieg Heil" at the Minister of Defense when he visited the Balkans...a few "exposes" on the troops in Afghanistan...that's pretty thin gruel as compared to the efforts other nations, in the EU and outside the EU (Canada/Australia) have contributed.

As to why, well you know you guys didn't have to spend 1.5 TRILLION to integrate East Germany...in fact had you NOT done what yo did, you and East Germany would be a whole lot better off. When you allowed the East German Mark parity with the West German Mark you blew it...and then you decided to transfer the Bundesrepublick's social, financial, and economic policies to East Germany.

Fine you made East Germany a part of West Germany, though the productivity of East Germany was far less than that of West Germany...just so the East Germans wouldn't feel "less than" the Westerners. Well they were...West Germany had Mercedes, Ostis had the Trabi...and the result was massive unemployment and dislocation. Now Germany has trouble paying for its productive citizens, considering the economic/social policies of Germany, much less paying East Germans over $22/hour for work that ought to have been valued at much closer to $8-10 per hour. Germany is in the boat it's in because you guys decided that you'd make Osti's "honorary" West Germans, even though they didn't have the economic infrastructure to justify it. That was your call, but don't try to act as if it was inevitable, it wasn't.

So in Afghanistan you don't do much, in the Balkans you don't do much, and off Somalia it appears that your Rules of Engagement are going to prevent yo from doing much...sorry showing up to the soccer match, but not playing, isn't being on the team...its just showing up. I'd like for Germany to do a little more than just show up. Barring that please just don't show up. It's less cruel that way...

And let's don't talk about Afghanistan's "unpopularity." Look dude you can disagree about Iraq, but Afghanistan is a very justifiable campaign, and it's in Europe's advantage too, but you guys aren't pulling your weight. You are expecting, as usual, someone else to do the heavy lifting...Just like Kosovo, or the Balkans in general. That was WHOLELY a European problem, and yet the Europeans didn't solve it...you waited for the US to take the lead and contribute the AWACS, the jamming air craft, the Stealth fighters, the Nimitz, and the precision-guided munitions that made the air campaign work.

As I say, I don't expect you to rise again, but how about you just do your part? Contribute some troops that can shoot at the Taliban, and then send them to the South of Afghanistan to do some shooting...how about letting your 1,400 troops/sailors/airmen off Somalia behave in a proactive manner, to include shooting pirates. How about the next time theres a bunch of nasty ethnic cleansing going on in EUROPE and the refugees are flooding Italy, Austria, and other EU nations that Germany and the EU nations ACTUALLY SOLVE THE PROBLEM?

I'm not asking that you contribute a Korps to invade Iraq...or ask that you devote 5% of GNP to defense. No, I'm asking you to contribute a BRIGADE to Afghanistan, and let it be available, if needs must, to fighting...that you sort out European problems without resort to AMERICAN power-dealing with Russia is not a wholly European problem BTW and we're glad to help you guys in dealing with Putin's Imperialism....that you actually FIGHT pirates, not just show up...that's all I'm asking...

I apologize for seeming to insult you, as a German...I don't mean this to be a "flame war" like the "SBS is better than the SEALS" of "Turkey v. Greek, who better." It simply is that Germany, and many in the EU have decided that "Soft Power" is the ONL

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Nasty German Idiot 12/8/2008 12:29:43 PM

I have never said that German Airpower "won" the Kosovo War, I said Germany participated with Bombers. If you would care to read up the attack you will find out that the German RECCE Tornados were responsible for knocking out Serb Radar.

PS: Guess who got sued by the Serbs for bombing bridges in Serbia ? Yes, it was GERMANY, not the US or Britain, because they hoped Germany would pay compensation again as we did no many times in the past. (XXXttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/3193800.stm) This is exactly the reason why Germany contrary to others has to be MUCH MORE careful about these things.

About accomplishments in the Balkans: Well, Bosnia is now largely pacified, and Serbia is on the long term on its way to EU membership, with Germany clearing the Way for them as we did for Poland and other Eastern Partners.

In Kosovo, where Germany is still involved after the United States have long left the region, there have been clashes with ethnic groups all day long. Hundereds of civilians were rescued also by German Troops during these clashes, apart from simple everyday things like rescueing Serb Monks because the mob tries to burn them ... "XXXttp://www.nato.int/KFOR/chronicle/2004/chronicle_03/01.htm"

Apart from the Berlin Airlift, there is not much the American Troops have done in Germany than to wait 50 years, thank you for that accomplishment. PS: "exposes" Didnt kill 30 German Soldiers, suicide bombers and roadside bombs did.

I believe it is highly stupid to criticize the integration of the East into Germany, and that every penny invested in East Germany is far more beneficial to Germany than waging a War in Afghanistan.

Please dont even try to debate about inner German Politics with me, your gonna loose that one for sure. Please tell me what else than a slow adjustment of Eastern Wages to the West German level would have STOPPED EVERY INHABITANT of the East to simply leaving and g

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le_corsaire 12/10/2008 7:52:39 AM

Germany has got some major problems, although it is the EUs largest and most powerful economy right now.

Germany?s military while relatively well equipped is been in decline for years like most of Europe.

Where do you have this half-truth nonsense from ? Lets clarify a few points, becasue some of them are simply wrong:

a) Germany has economic problems like obviously everybody else does.

b) There is no big competition with the "Asian Tigers", as Germany's main exports are in industrial/productions goods (machinery, plant equipment, etc.), while most Asia countries export consumer goods.

c) Germany indeed does have a Central Bank (called Deutsche Bundesbank www.bundesbank.de...) and in fact they do coordinate response to the economic crisis, as EU nations have agreed upon that each nation is responsible to set up their own plans, however coordinated with the ECB and the other EU nations.

d) Enron like accounting in corporations ? Where does this nonsense from ? The primary problem at the current state is a re-financing problem (e.g. in the case of Hypo Real Estate - also this statement in your post is half-truth, as Hypo (the bank) is part of the UniCredit group and something totally different - the problem obviously was that they re-financed long-term debts with short term loans and due to the financial crisis, where no longer able to reniew these instruments as you might know that the market is amost "dead").

e) "Overvaluing corporate assets used to secure those loans" is again without any evidence. The problem currently is that even profitable corporations with full order books can no longer achieve re-financing becasue of the the credit crunch.

f) The "bailout program" in Germany is currently used by 15 banks (i.e. there are 15 applications currently). The largest portions of it are so called "Landesbanks" and indeed the reason is that these Landesbanks

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le_corsaire 12/11/2008 2:34:35 AM

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ambush 12/11/2008 9:18:21 AM

Germany has got some major problems, although it is the EUs largest and most powerful economy right now.

Germany?s military while relatively well equipped is been in decline for years like most of Europe.

Where do you have this half-truth nonsense from ? Lets clarify a few points, becasue some of them are simply wrong:

a) Germany has economic problems like obviously everybody else does.

e) "Overvaluing corporate assets used to secure those loans" is again without

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JFKY LeCorsair 12/11/2008 10:40:20 AM

Is there an independent democratic government in Kosovo? I don't think so....is there one in Afghanistan and Iraq...why yes, yes there is....and how long did it take to get Kosovo to this point, why it took what almost a decade...and Afghanistan and Iraq, why two years at the most, after the entry of foreign troops? Well at least Afghanistan and Iraq were peaceful when occupied...oh wait, that's right there was and is still civil unrest and war in both, whereas Kosovo was peaceful by comparison and YET the Europeans haven't settled Kosovo's final status, and whether or no Northern Kosovo will be a part of Serbia or Kosovo and there is no Kosovar government, is there? There is an international administration, still...

Yeah Kosovo is a FINE example of International Nation-Building by the EU....

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Nasty German Idiot 12/11/2008 5:45:51 PM

The Deutsche bank does not have the same power or perform all the same funticons as the US Federal reserve or the Cental banks of many other countries, in terms of monetary policy, that functions i performed more by the European Central Bank-ECB.

I am sure the Asian Tigers wil be equally surprised to find out thaty are not turning out any production equipment or heavy machinery.

Look at the connection between Siemens AG and Deutsche Bank (a relationship which has existed for more than 100 years.) There is an overlapping of interests from this type of arrangement making the system less flexible in the face of major shocks like serious recessions or credit crises and also allows for creative bookkeeping practices)

"Deutsche Bank" is a simple private company that is active in many countries. "Deutsche Bundesbank" (Bund = Federacy in German) is the German State bank controlling the German Financial System that has indeed lost some power to the ECB. They had the control in times of the Deutsche-Mark. Still the ECB sits in Frankfurt, right next to the Bundesbank. (basically the same building) (XXXttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deutsche_Bundesbank#The_Bundesbank_today) <---- As you see, the "Bundesbank" does perform exactly the same duties that the US Federal Reserve does.

My prediction is similar to that one of the Ifo Institute, Germany will stop growing and enter technical recession with 0 percent growth till the end of 2009, and when the world economy jumps again we will get into business again, strenghened from the breakdown of some major international competitors. PS: Germany will continue to defend its world export champion title against China in 2008, as newest date shows.

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le_corsaire 12/12/2008 4:05:14 AM

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The Deutsche bank does not have the same power or perform all the same funticons as the US Federal reserve or the Cental banks of many other countries, in terms of monetary policy, that functions i performed more by the European Central Bank-ECB.

I am sure the Asian Tigers wil be equally surprised to find out thaty are not turning out any production equipment or heavy machinery.

Again, you are talking in cliches.

a) Deutsche Bank - as already stated above - is a private bank and has not anything to do with monetary policy.

What we are talking about is "Bundesbank" has and indeed, it performs exactly the same function as the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank: to control the monetary policy of the FRG. Now, since the EUR has been introduced (Maastricht contracts) all participating countries have agreed upon to jointly coordinate their actions via the ECB - and you might be suprised - the ECB has been formed according to the Bundesbank concept (because it obviously was the most successful one in the EU). Now even ECB is not acting in isolation - they have to take into account the requirements of the EU nations organized in the (EU Group). So the organizational concept here might be different to the U.S. - however it does not mean that it is inferior to the U.S. concept by any means. (And please think, that EU did not just "happen" to Germany - the FRG has decided to drive these organization forward). So saying that there is no Central Bank as most other nations have it which could counter the crisis is absolutely nonsense.

b) So your "Asian Tigers" are also the major competitors of the U.S. ? So everybody is competitor to everybody ? On a ducciciently high level of abstraction you can for sure say so. It is a fact that the percentage of industrial goods exported from the EU, particularly Germany, is much higher than whatever comes from Asia in this sector.

c) Siemens can work with any bank they like. Do you think General Motors is not working with a commercial bank or do U.S. companies need no banks ? ... so what are you trying to say ? I think your major misconception here is that "Deutsche Bank" is a private bank (remember we are not talking about Bundesbank - which is a state central bank). Companies like Siemens naturally work with private banks and it is also usual that such relationships continue for a long time.

Where is a conflict of interest - it is normal that in such a business relationship both companies are following mutual interests, what problem does this have for the system. Lets see it very clear - the financial crisis now has pretty much shown, that obviously the German ... or better say the EUR "system" seems to be at least as stable as the U.S. "system".

Since long time Germany has accounting standards which are enforced strictly (for a long time known as one of the strictest in the Europes). As EU countries have been working on harmonization of their practises, some of these german accounting rules have in the meantime been superseded by European directives, IFRS and other guidelines, which by no means allow for "creative accounting practise". Interestingly I do not remember an Enron case in Germany.

What you state here is pure speculation or misinterpretation very little evidence in reality ...

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