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Subject: Rising Sun over Hawaii....
Godofgamblers    3/3/2008 2:03:12 AM
IN this scenario, the IJN invades Hawaii instead of a hit and run attack on Pearl. One of the invasion groups that struck Wake, or Indonesia, instead re routed to Hawaii and siezed enough real estate to make it unusable as a resupply/logistical center. The US lines of communication with Australia-NewZeland-Philipines would have been broken irrevocably for at least a year and a half. All points west severed it also catches the US oil stock and fleet repair assets in the port. Nobody can argue I think that the US forces could have repelled the invasion by say 15,000 Japanese Marines fresh from duty in China. The entire Japanese gambit in WWII was to make the US sue for peace rather than fight it out in a protracted conflict. We know what happened when the Japanese missed our carriers and ran off. In my new scenario the battle of Guadalcanal never happens because the IJN have successfully severed the artery in the middle of the pacific.
 
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Herald12345    Where the USS Ward was posted is where she engaged.   3/14/2008 3:03:49 PM



USS Ward combat report.

Japanese mini-sub found.

Notice the depth at where the sub was found?

Navigation log, USS Ward.

OUTSIDE the main entry channel.

Location, location, location.

Comment on that on which you know......................which incidentally is very little.

Herald



 




and not a single word relevant to the subject at hand which is a blockship in the channel leading into pearl.

dragging in a bunch of twaddle about minisubs is utterly pointless.  perhaps you might try to focus on the subject for once herald.

Missed the part in the Navigation log where the USS Ward challenged a sampan approaching the restricted zone OUTSIDE THE MAIN CHANNEL and diverted the sampan after it failed challenge?

Of course you did, Ehran.

As I said, you don't EVER know what you are talking about. But you sure love to give your totally unqualified factless OPINION.

Discredited yet again, barge expert, but that has been for about a year continuous now, hasn't it?"

Herald

 
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Herald12345    Alternative 2.   3/14/2008 3:07:18 PM



http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3018/2333618760_cea26736e4_b.jpg">


Herald







 
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JFKY    Herald   3/14/2008 4:16:40 PM
The problem is the Two Ocean Navy Act wasn't passed until 1940.  There is no building or planning to build in 1938.  And the USN did not know of the Yamato class.
 
I'm not sure that 25 knot carriers are something the USN wants, any way.  The carriers need to move together and the class is too slow to keep up with the rest of the CV's.
 
Finally there aren't enough aircraft to man the fleet you propose.  In 1941, with partial mobilization underway the USN had trouble filling out it's Fighting Squadrons and keeping them the something like TO&E strength.  In fact the loss of aircraft carriers made it possible to actually increase the TO&E strength of the Fighting Squadrons to 36 Wildcats.
 
And there isn't likely to be a mobilization much prior tot he one the US undertook in 1939-40.
 
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Herald12345    I told you I would embarass you.   3/14/2008 11:43:05 PM

The problem is the Two Ocean Navy Act wasn't passed until 1940.  There is no building or planning to build in 1938.  And the USN did not know of the Yamato class.

 

I'm not sure that 25 knot carriers are something the USN wants, any way.  The carriers need to move together and the class is too slow to keep up with the rest of the CV's.

 CVE's.

Finally there aren't enough aircraft to man the fleet you propose.  In 1941, with partial mobilization underway the USN had trouble filling out it's Fighting Squadrons and keeping them the something like TO&E strength.  In fact the loss of aircraft carriers made it possible to actually increase the TO&E strength of the Fighting Squadrons to 36 Wildcats.

 3000 aircraft Authorized in 1938. Build them.

And there isn't likely to be a mobilization much prior tot he one the US undertook in 1939-40.

Vinson Naval Act 1934 as part of the  Roosevelt NIRA  program.

Carl Vinson Naval legislation.

NYT 1938 article.

Anglo-American shipbuilding in WW II: A Geographical Perspective by Michael Lindberg,Daniel Todd. pg.139.

You were warned.

Herald


 
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caltrop       3/15/2008 9:51:31 AM

................the outlines of the mistakes and the Human motives that led to those mistakes become painfully clear when you look at the actual events. Conspiracy nuts just can't get it through their heads that the surprised victim of the disaster is fully aware of the possibility, even plans for the possibility and yet for what seems to be perfectly good reasons to him at the time ignores advice or refuses to implement his own planning to prevent the disaster.

Case in point.

The IJN wargamed Operation MI [the attack on Midway] Admiral Yamaguchi who headed the US "team" clobbered Nagumo's  air staff  and scattered thejm in defeat  with just one "US carrier"  and a ragtag fleet of  escorts plus simulated Midway landbased air.

Yamaguchi [Hiryu] in the wargame accomplished  nowhere near the damage that Spruance did in reality, but then the Japanese didn't properly weight the data as to how ineffective the USNAF at that stage of the war was either. 

Did the Japanese change their plans and adjust for the expected American ambush fleet?

No.


Herald
 
I'm not sure the IJN would have changed their plans even if they new Halsey was not in command.  Spruance was an unknown factor but to me more importantly the IJN typically in WW2 planned its actions with the enemy doing what they (IJN) thought it would do in their place. 
 
To the Midway example.  I beleive the wargame judges performed a "do-over" on the wargame exercise and reversed the damages to the carriers allowing the IJN the eventual victory.  In this scenario, did not Yamaguchi attack from the SouthEast?  Genda later admitted that the IJN was suffering from "victory disease" which had bred over optimism.  They simply could not fathom any way they could lose.
 
I think the IJN did make some modifications to their plans as a weak gesture to the wargaming outcome.  I thought the flotilla of screening subs was added to warn of an early USN carrier departure from Pearl late in the operational planning.  And of course they screwed that up but again were they not worried.  They fully expected the USN to be at Pearl when they struck Midway because that's what they would be doing.
 
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Herald12345       3/15/2008 1:32:28 PM



................the outlines of the mistakes and the Human motives that led to those mistakes become painfully clear when you look at the actual events. Conspiracy nuts just can't get it through their heads that the surprised victim of the disaster is fully aware of the possibility, even plans for the possibility and yet for what seems to be perfectly good reasons to him at the time ignores advice or refuses to implement his own planning to prevent the disaster.

Case in point.

The IJN war gamed Operation MI [the attack on Midway] Admiral Yamaguchi who headed the US "team" clobbered Nagumo's  air staff  and scattered them in defeat  with just one "US carrier"  and a ragtag fleet of  escorts plus simulated Midway land based air.

Yamaguchi [Hiryu] in the war game accomplished  nowhere near the damage that Spruance did in reality, but then the Japanese didn't properly weight the data as to how ineffective the USNAF at that stage of the war was either. 

Did the Japanese change their plans and adjust for the expected American ambush fleet?

No.



Herald

 

I'm not sure the IJN would have changed their plans even if they knew Halsey was not in command.  Spruance was an unknown factor but to me more importantly the IJN typically in WW2 planned its actions with the enemy doing what they (IJN) thought it would do in their place. 

This is more or less a failing of MOST militaries: they cannot think in an alien mindset. Spruance was one of those rare individuals who could do this. Scipio Africanus of the ancient world , and Yamamoto, himself, a Spruance contemporary  were two others. Yamaguchi might have been another, Van Ripper I believe to be a recent American example.  .    

To the Midway example.  I believe the war game judges performed a "do-over" on the war game exercise and reversed the damages to the carriers allowing the IJN the eventual victory.  In this scenario, did not Yamaguchi attack from the South East?  Genda later admitted that the IJN was suffering from "victory disease" which had bred over optimism.  They simply could not fathom any way they could lose.

Genda actually criticized the umpire's rulings. There is a rumor that we ourselves did much the same thing in Exercise Millennium Challenge 2000
 

I think the IJN did make some modifications to their plans as a weak gesture to the war gaming outcome.  I thought the flotilla of screening subs was added to warn of an early USN carrier departure from Pearl late in the operational planning.  And of course they screwed that up but again were they not worried.  They fully expected the USN to be at Pearl when they struck Midway because that's what they would be doing.

Yamamoto made that change. There wasn't much the Japanese could do within their actual dispositions and force mixes, since basing and forces they prior dispersed, that they  brought together for Operation MI were more or less separated by steaming times, fuel supplies, and the actual start positions for which they were stuck. What they could do was evasively route, but there wasn't too much point to this either when the fuel shortage was factored in and the fact that they could expect a strong American reconnaissance.  

You remember that the hapanese were going to send a flying boat to Pearl Harbor to check on PacFlt dispositions but that the USN sent a ship to French Frigate Shoals which the Japanese intended to use as a forward base for that flying boat.

Notice why.

http://www.users.bigpond.com/pacificwar/webgraphics/MidwayMap2.jpg">

One of the things that many critics who fault the Japanese dispositions and routing ignore is weather. Just as the Japanese used weather fronts to mask their approach to Pearl Harbor so they hoped to do the same at Midway. The First Air Fleet actually tracked in, using rain squalls to mask against American air reconnaissance, which explains why Nagumo got in so close before the PBYs detected him.

Spruance to Nimitz.

Another account.

[quoting]

Bad weather had also been cloaking the Japanese forces approach
 
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JFKY    HUH!?   3/15/2008 9:49:54 PM
"You were warned"  about what?
 
Any way sorry Herald we don't get to re-write history in the large scale.  The 2 Ocean Act passed when it did, we don't get to pass a Naval Build-Up in 1934.  The Two Ocean Act passed because the onset of the Second World War and the Fall of France, as well as a desire to stimulate the US economy.  So, the Navy isn't getting any bigger in 1934.  As to 3,000 A/C being AUTHORIZED, that's nice but not possible unless the US has undertaken a very large rearmament and that wasn't underway for another year.  If you're going to start talking about "Might Have Beens" you might as well start talking about "What if Eleanor Roosevelt could fly?"  The reality is that the US did not begin to re-arm until the British and French began to re-arm and shop for arms in the US, and the US did not get serious about rearmament until the outbreak of war and then the Fall of France.  The force structure is pretty much set in stone, no 3,000 a/c and no CV's based on Liners, at least in 1938.  Finally I don't think the conversions would have been as useful as you think.  Generally converted CV's did not perform that well.  Sara and Lex were converted on the shipbuilding ways, not afterwords.  I think you're proposed conversions would not only not have been created, but had they been created they would have been rapidly relegated to being large CVE's, not major combatants.
 
As to CVE's and CV's at 25 knots...the President Class would have NOT been CVE's...they would have been Fleet Carriers, or we are wasting time.  The CVE's did not operate with the Fleet Carriers, but as a supplement to them, aircraft ferries, and ASW and CAS at the beach head.  Your proposed vessels were too big, to be CVE's but too slow to be CV's.  Sorry, but the comment about CVE's is a non-sequitur.
 
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Herald12345    rEAD the citations and then stop posting nonsense.   3/15/2008 10:03:02 PM
Different is not bigger.

You make a few design choices that is different in the historic tech path. Narvol fueled torpedoes and a snort on your subs for example and you chop up a couple of ocean liners and turn them into flattops and you radically change the overall equations. As I mentioned the ice cream budget for the USN in the 1930s could have given us a decent HWT torpedo.

The History as cited is REAL. A million tonnes of new US naval construction between 1934 and 1938 didn't appear out of thin air. That was 2/3 of the entire Japanese Navy's total displacement  by the way.

As I said previously, I cite fact.

What have you got again?

Nothing.

Herald

 

 
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Herald12345    READ the citations and then stop posting nonsense.   3/15/2008 10:15:49 PM
The Hoovers would be the US version of the Junyos and for very much the same reason-get carriers toi the fleet as quickly as possible. Dollar Line and  American President Line passenger liners are then best pre-war candidates for conversion.

Again as for the CVE's, since these carriers did fight a major surface battle all by their lonesomes against the Japanese {Samar} and WON; what was your ridiculous "point" again?

Herald

 
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JFKY       3/16/2008 10:04:34 AM
1) The Junyo's did not perform well for the Japanese.  They were not particularly fast and because they were conversions, they were not able to carry a large aircraft component, 24 fighters and nine dive bombers.  Their combat performance was not that good.  Which would add evidence to my assertion that the Presidents would have been equally disappointing.
 
2) The CVEs did not fight WITH the CV's at Samar, they fought in LIEU of the CV's at Samar.  Or more aptly they fled for their lives off of Samar.  The Taffies achieved nothing, in regards to actual physical damage to Kurita's force.  I say that not to denigrate their bravery, but as a simple discussion of fact.  Had Kurita continued on he would have destroyed them and then been in amongst the transports.  But they did not operate with CV's and operated apart from the CV's due to their speed differences, aircraft wing differences, and doctrinal differences.  CVE's provided beachhead CAP, ASW, and CAS.  The Fleet carriers were there to destroy the Japanese fleet and provide sea control missions.
 
3) Thirdly you might want to examine your argumentation style.  If it is your plan to enrage your opponent with dismissive comments, it's not working here...spent too long in church and 12 Step work to allow you to live rent free in my head, like that.  In fact, I must say I feel sorry for you that your arrogance, and rage seems to be manifest in this manner.  And unless it's some Bobby Fisher-esque way of getting inside your opponent's "head" well then it's very sad and I pity you.  A person shouldn't be so angry and needful of being "right" all the time.  It bespeaks of some very deep and powerful issues in your psyche that need some attention. 
 
Please note that Christ or the Buddha, both enlightened men, both with powerful intellects and great hearts never found the need to denigrate, even though they had the Path to Salvation/Enlightenment.  With them as our examples, we might learn humility and come to see that this board can be a place where we learn, where we disagree and where we grow, both intellectually and emotionally.  You may continue with your spite-fests if you wish I shall try to remain more calm and hopefully learn from you, both in the head and in the heart.  I certainly hope you can learn....because otherwise I thnk your anger is going to lead to your suspension from here, one day.  And then, without the forum to demonstrate your "superiority" what will you do?  Take this opportunity to learn, from others and about yourself.
 
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