He is facing a different problem that people of the US or the West don't generally understand. Russia is a dying nation. Her population is dwindling. She can't compete any of her product, except oil and weapons, in globalized market. Putin's primary mission is to revive the nation, which is the first reason that people of Russia tolerate his authoritative attitude and corrupt business doing and still love him. He needs to do whatever it takes to revive the Russians, or there will be no Russian nation in ten generations.

 

On the other hand, Russia enjoys current oil price, but he knows that oil price can't be high all the time, even at the age of great depletion. He needs to find a blame to deviate Russians from blaming on him. The West, and US imperialism, becomes great scapegoat for his corrupt acts.

Yelli, your first paragraph is spot one. But not the second one. Believe me, the Russians have real legitimate issues with the West. It is not simple scapegoating. How much of it is rhetoric and how much of it is policy, we don't know. But obviously the west would like Russia to be weak and divided and is working to keep things that way. Russia is not being treated as a potential ally but as a threat that needs to be cordoned off. How Russia reacts to this is very important...

No offense taken! I would be happy to answer. The problem is that I don't follow Eastern European affairs as closely as I used to and so I can't give you the answer you deserve. I'll just make a few points and hope that DSN or someone more knowledgable will step in to fill in the blanks.

 

To begin with, there were promises made to the Russians after the fall of the wall that the west would NOT exploit Russia's weakness in the aftermath, that NATO would not expand, that the west would help Russia make the painful transition to a market economy and that Russia would be incorporated into the family of free nations..... None of these promises were kept, at least in the eyes of the Russians.

 

They watched in consternation at NATO expanded right up to their doorstep. They probably assumed that the Poles and Czechs would join, but when the Baltic nations and the Ukraine were allowed admittance, it outflanked them and brought NATO right to their borders (in Slovakia, Ukraine and the Baltic states.... triple contact).

 

The first winters were the most difficult for them as their country was bankrupt and could not even afford heating oil for the long, cold Russian winters. I happened to pass thru Moscow at that time (1993) and can tell you, it was a pathetic sight; the bridges and underpasses were all filled with the older generation. Old men and women left on the streets in -25 degrees, many of them selling off their last few possessions, including WW2 medals as many were veterns, to buy some coal or vodka to survive the cold. Absolutely pathetic.... The west refused to give any aid to Russia, linking aid instead to SALT treaty concessions that it wanted Russia to make. Extortion in the eyes of the Russians. They survived thanks to grants given by the Chinese in the end, not the west.

 

At that time, out of every three 16 year old males, stats told us that only 1 would make it to the age of 50. The men were dying at an alarming rate. Many through suicide and alcoholism. If this were happening in an African nation, there would be mass aid. For the RUssians, there was no aid forthcoming. The women were selling themselves all over the world as the world's prostitutes. Dispossessed and with no skills or future at home, they had little choice. In indonesia there is major traffic of Russian women as in every country. You can go to brothels ii Bangladesh, Pakistan, whatever third world country you can think of, and you will find Russian women there. Russia had become a nation without dignity, without hope without a future.

 

In Russian eyes, the west seemed to be smirking and cooly smug about the state of affairs. The west's strategic treatment of Russian has been to put a 'cordon sanitaire' around Russia. It has presided over the breakup of the SU, and moved into the former Russian republics via NATO or even more directly as is the case in Uzbekistan and Kazahkstan. The erecting of a missle shield was seen as another move in this direction. Even though thoses in the west say it does not threaten Russia, the Russian reaction was seen as indicative of the fact that the Russkis view it as yet another step in isolating and weakening Russia. In any case, it was done without consulting the Russians and took them completely off guard. They are still bitter about it.

 

If you speak to Russians, you will find that the two most celebrated Russians in the west, Gorbachev and Yeltsin, are the two most reviled in Russia: Gorbachev for breaking up the SU, and Yeltsin for swallowing the west's bill of goods that they would assist Russia and help it join the family of nations.

 

These are but a few points.... there are numerous articles written on this matter and even books I'm sure, but the best way to gauge Russian feelings is to speak to Russians.... they will pull no punches and can add a lot more material to the above.

If you wish to pursue this topic further, TBV, I suggest you look up the forums on the net at PRAVDA or type in key terms such as "Russia", "cordon sanitaire" and see what comes up.

 

I'm not saying I adhere to the version of facts above verbatim, but I am just trying to convey to you that the Russians do have a different point of view and it is not just the ravings of a few demagogues in Russia, but that there is some validity to it.....

 

all the best

Sorry GoG I disagree with your notion of compartmentalising the Russian ills as a a western injection of calculated dismemberment by proxy.

The russian baseline problem has been and continues to be a legacy of a ex KGB and military officers who wedded and bedded industrialiast to develop proxy oligarchs.  Putins decision to dismember those groups was based on his own need to have uncontested and absolute power - its got nothing to do with him presenting a moral alternative.  He's behaving like the oligarchs - except he has real "wieldable" power.

I think he was meant to express how Russians look at things, not his personal belief or opinion.

Russian society has serious entanglement of problems. One of the major problems is lose of will to proliferate, a problem neither the US nor Australia would ever understand. They are a nation of lost. Lost to everything. Russian nation has never encounter de-population until now. Even under Stalin's iron fist or Ivan the Terror's rule, it never happened like this. There are many example of this collective behavior. Hawaiians did stopped breeding when white people stole their nation. In Taiwan, aboriginal people ceased to reproduce when Japanese broke their will.

 

 

That's right, Yelli. I was speaking of the difference in perception between the West and Russia, not my own personal opinion.

 

However, I do feel, as DSN stated, that we didn't do enough to bring Russia into the family of nations. I once wrote a "Russia as Weimar Republic ?" thread on SP. Our grandchildren may face the consequences of this failure on our part...

 

You are right, gf, they have made a lot of bad decisions but what moral compass do we expect them to follow? They don't have democratic precedents in their history and are receiving little if no support from outside. It's no surprise that, in such desperate straits as they are, they are turning to authoritarianism. Unfortunately., as human beings, the choice is never between good and evil, as you know; if the choice were always between good and evil, the world would be a beautiful place. Unfortunately, the choice is usually between two evils. The Russians have hard choices to make, as do we all.

 

In every nation, there is a source for the elite groups: in Indonesia ,believe it or not, it means being a graduate of the University of Berkeley; in Japan it is being a graduate of Tokyo university; in Poland, strangely enough, it is being a member of certain trade union; in Russia, it is being a member of the former communist party (!).

 

So remember that all the capitains of industry, the politicians, the lawmakers, the lawyers, and so on are all members of that particular 'old boys' club'.....

 

 

By the way, Herald, if you are reading this, speaking of connections and networks, you once asked me about the penetration of the PRC in Indo and I have been asking contacts about this but have yet to get a satisfactory answer; most are shocked that I could even ask such a question. They claim that it is impossible for a multitude of reasons.... I think they are naive.... but I have no proof to the contrary so far. I am keeping my eyes open...

 

 

Can some of our more geopolitically astute members please explain to me what this guy is up to?

Threatening to target nukes in retaliation for Ukraines potential joining of NATO and potential basing of US forces there.

Is it truely as simple as "Putin needs a rallying cry to justify the powers he has given himself in an effor tto stay in power for life"

It seems as if he "Wants" to be our enemy.

So come on people whats his "rationale"

Glad we agree on something at last, Hugo. Good to be on the side as you.

I find it ironic that the russians feel compelled enough to exercise veto on a people who clearly do not and have always shown that they are no longer serb vassals.

 

we now have an oligarchy supporting serbian neo-colonialism.  that says more about the russian morality than any non slavic enthusiasm for a peoples to exercise self determination.

 

if the hat was on a different head, the russians (and the mainland chinese) would be screaming blue bloody murder at a form of imperialistic or colonialistic behaviour.

 

sorry, but I have no sympathy for the russo/serb slavic brotherhood on this. if it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, then get the "foie gras" ready....

 

 

Can some of our more geopolitically astute members please explain to me what this guy is up to?

Threatening to target nukes in retaliation for Ukraines potential joining of NATO and potential basing of US forces there.

Is it truely as simple as "Putin needs a rallying cry to justify the powers he has given himself in an effor tto stay in power for life"

It seems as if he "Wants" to be our enemy.

So come on people whats his "rationale"

This about about strategic depth AE. Assume Ukraine is in NATO with full military membership. How far is Moscow from NATO's ability to strike? Historically Russian security has always depended on "buffer states".

 

 

-DA

Also, Russia is furious about Kosovo. I mentioned this before here:

 

h*tp://strategypage.com/militaryforums/30-97935.aspx

 

Look at Russia(USSR) borders with NATO in 1988 compared to 2008. Now add Ukraine to NATO and look at the borders. The only difference is instead of advancing with Abrams, Challengers, LeClercs and Leopords we are doing it with diplomats.

 

This is a really dangerous time.

 

 

-DA