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Subject: What if the Germany or Japan had Fat Man and Little Boy?
free_man 12    1/15/2008 1:11:09 PM
We now know that the US did not have any additional nuclear bombs available after using the 2 on Japan. Yet, they were able to "scare" the Japanese into unconditional surrender. What would have happened if Japan or Germany had only 2 such bombs and the US did not? 1) Do you think they would have used 1 or both? 2) Where do you think they would have used them? Vary your answer, depending on whether you feel they "could" have delivered the bomb to mainland US or not. 3) What would the Alied response have been, i.e., conditional/unconditional surrender, chemical/biological attacks in resonse, other options? Thanks
 
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Ehran       1/15/2008 2:10:05 PM
think there is little doubt the germans would have used them on the russians rather than the west.  a condor could have made a suicide run to moscow with one of the nukes and if it succeded it would have seriously hurt the soviets.  what to do with the 2nd bomb would have been the real question.  new york harbour via sub or london by air would be possibilities or better yet to just hold it as a threat.
 
japan at the end was so strapped it's hard to see them delivering a bomb successfully so perhaps using it against the american landings?
 
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free_man 12    Ok, but what of the resonse?   1/15/2008 2:16:16 PM
Ehran,
 
What would the Soviet response have been? Fight to the death? Surrender? Treaty?
 
Also, what of the response from the second country to suffer the nuclear fate?
 
If the Soviet's would have either surrendered or ceased hostilities, what of Germany's newfound ability to concentrate all their armies to the West?  What would the outcome have been?
 
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free_man 12    Ok, but what of the resonse?   1/15/2008 2:16:59 PM
Ehran,
 
What would the Soviet response have been? Fight to the death? Surrender? Treaty?
 
Also, what of the response from the second country to suffer the nuclear fate?
 
If the Soviet's would have either surrendered or ceased hostilities, what of Germany's newfound ability to concentrate all their armies to the West?  What would the outcome have been?
 
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Softwar       1/15/2008 2:25:33 PM
Please note - Hitler refrained from using poison gas - and the Germans had developed nerve gas before D-Day.  The reasoning was the allies also had gas and would retaliate in kind.  If the Germans has nukes and there was a hint the western alliance also had nukes - Hitler might have followed the same pattern of MAD.
 
As for the Soviet response - fight on and on and on until Stalin could beg, borrow or steal a bomb of his own.  Note the Soviets stole the US bomb designs and the B-29 design.
 
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flamingknives       1/15/2008 2:30:43 PM
I rather suspect that the Red Army would have razed Germany to the ground and salted the ashes.
 
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free_man 12    stick to the scenario   1/15/2008 3:31:55 PM
I have set up a scenario where the US did not, and could not, come up with a nuke, but only Germany or Japan could, and did, come up with the two the US actually developed.  If Germany had no counterthreat of a nuke, what would they have done to US/England and what would the US/English response have been?
 
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Softwar       1/15/2008 4:15:34 PM

I have set up a scenario where the US did not, and could not, come up with a nuke, but only Germany or Japan could, and did, come up with the two the US actually developed.  If Germany had no counterthreat of a nuke, what would they have done to US/England and what would the US/English response have been?



The US did not have nerve gas but Hitler and his staff thought that the US did - so Hitler declined to use it even though it was available for D-Day.  Do some basic research here.....
 
Hitler liked wonder weapons but they were all conventional in nature.  He knew he could have used bio weapons or a dirty bomb to toast London or New York but he elected not to out of fear of retaliation.  The UK had a very active anthrax program by this time and I am sure the US could have easily mounted conventional gas attacks that would have devastated Germany as a whole. Berlin was aware of these facts.
 
Again, I suspect it would have not changed the outcome - just killed more in a shorter time - if it was used at all.
 
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free_man 12    my understanding   1/15/2008 4:40:19 PM
CBW were not used in WWII because of threats in degree, not in kind.  Though only Germany had nerve gas, they didn't use it because of the US threat of using chlorine and mustard gas, not because they thought the US had nerve gas.
 
In any event, it would have been a lot easier for the US to mount such an attack on Germany, obviously needing thousands of sorties to be as devastating as a nuclear device, than for Germany to drop 1 nuclear device on the US mainland.  So, I do not think the threat of mustard or chlorine, and probably even nerve gas, would have deterred Germany from using a nuke, especially once they saw the way the Eastern Front was going.
 
That being said, I still wonder whether the US would have continued the fight for Europe, if Germany would have nuked NY or Boston, and threatened additional nuke attacks?
 
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Softwar       1/15/2008 4:53:09 PM

CBW were not used in WWII because of threats in degree, not in kind.  Though only Germany had nerve gas, they didn't use it because of the US threat of using chlorine and mustard gas, not because they thought the US had nerve gas.

 

In any event, it would have been a lot easier for the US to mount such an attack on Germany, obviously needing thousands of sorties to be as devastating as a nuclear device, than for Germany to drop 1 nuclear device on the US mainland.  So, I do not think the threat of mustard or chlorine, and probably even nerve gas, would have deterred Germany from using a nuke, especially once they saw the way the Eastern Front was going.

 

That being said, I still wonder whether the US would have continued the fight for Europe, if Germany would have nuked NY or Boston, and threatened additional nuke attacks?


Wrong - check your history Jackson - the Germans developed nerve gas (VR) using formulas they bought from the USA (Dupont) for insecticides.  The brain trust in Berlin noted that if they saw the deadly results from a slight modification in formulation then so the Americans would have seen the same thing as well.  Thus, they advised Hitler that the US had VR or worse.  It was simple logic - we had nearly a decade head start before we sold the formulas to Berlin.  Hitler opted not to us nerve gas at D-Day because he felt the US would respond in kind. 
 
You need a quick course in biotoxin weaponization and development.....
As for smashing NY or Chicago and then expecting the US to fold - would not have happened.  We would have not left two stones standing side by side in retaliation.  The same applies today - except 100 fold - we won't leave two molten rocks standing side by side.
 
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free_man 12       1/15/2008 5:11:19 PM
Gotcha on the nerve gas.
 
But, you fail to address the nukes.  As much as the US proved its resiliency, determination and willingness to fight, I do not think that anyone, maybe in history, has proved that more than the Japanese in WWII.  If you look at the Casualty figures and see the lack of wounded, after almost every battle, you see how they were almost willing to throw themselves on the sword to win, or at least not to lose.  They almost literally starved their country to death for the war effort; they even put children with antiquated guns on the front.
 
However, even the Japanese realized how futile it would be to continue to fight, after they got hit with the second nuke, or as many now claim, even after the first nuke.  They were at least smart enough to realize when their goose was cooked.  And they then agreed to (almost) unconditional surrender and the subjugation/administration of their mainland by the US.
 
Therefore, I do not think that the US, after getting hit 1 or 2 times, thinking that Germany had many nukes, (like the US actually hinted to the Japanese), would have charged ahead at ALL costs for a fight to save Europe, at least until they discovered the bomb themselves.
 
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