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Subject: Supply Lines...
Condor Legion    9/2/2003 11:29:08 PM
Something I've been wondering about since before Iraqi Freedom started...

US and allied units are way out on the end of a somewhat tenous supplyline through southern Iraq. Given the potential of a Shiite vs. Shiite (or vs. Sunni, or Sunni vs. Kurd) civil war, how long can we keep those supplylines open and operating at full capacity? What if Iranian support for certain Shiite factions escalates into a full-blown Iranian invasion of Iraq? How long could the Iranians close or threaten to close the Persian Gulf to shipping? What if Iraqi resistence to democracy escalates into a full-blown Tet-style offensive? Or, worst case scenario, all of the above...

Keeping in mind that US units tend to expend prodigious amounts of ordance downrange in combat situations (this is a good thing), how long can the in-country ammo supply last? Also keeping in mind the area of the world in question and it's lone export of value...How long could reserve fuel stocks hold out in the event of the Persian Gulf being closed again, even if only temporarily?

...and who's available to counter-attack (and how would they get there/how fast?) in these hypothetical scenarios?

NO STALINGRADS,
CL
 
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AlbanyRifles    RE:Supply Lines...   9/3/2003 7:44:32 AM
Condor, Do you stay up late at night thinking this stuff up? You must be a lot of fun to be around!!! :-) Truly, it would be tough, but we have a lot more combat power in theater now than we did at the start of OIF. Admittedly, we may have to give up a larger chunk of land and pull in some. But Iran coming in would open up some Saudi and possible Turkish ports. 1 ID is on a short string. There is still a lot of ammo left afloat (remember, only 2.5 divisions shot up the ammo) May be some PGM issues. Oh yeah, and how do you think the Iranian Air Force would do? And how well could their armor do? Now our log tail is long but not too fragile. You may hear about a vehicle getting hit here and there but you don't hear about the nundreds getting through unscathed each day. Easy? No. Doable? Yes, from a military stand point. But the real issue becomes political because you are talking about a wholesale mobilization of the NG & USAR.
 
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nigelaa    RE:Supply Lines...   9/3/2003 6:08:26 PM
Iran has a major problem with getting involved - civil war!! A majority of the population would not support the "mad mullahs" in their attempt to start a Jihad with the Americans...something about all that modern technology...because the U.S. represents the focus of what alot of young Iranians see as the their future - directly= thru immigration, indirectly= thru trade and money. I think that most of the mullahs are secretly impressed with HOW EASILY the Great Satan handled Saddam's boys and the Iranian forces are not much higher on the technological or command and control scales...
 
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Condor Legion    RE:Supply Lines...   9/3/2003 7:14:08 PM
lol...Yeah Albany, I do...sad ain't it? I couldn't even figger out which category to post this in. It came from thinking to myself, "What would I do if I wanted to defeat the Great Satan in this battle, in this war?" I know that the Iranian Air Force is negligible at best under normal circumstances and only mildly troublesome should the Iranian pilots go seeking their 72 raisins Japanese style. However, in theory...Should the Iranians fill the air space over the Gulf with anti-shipping missiles and suicidal jetfighters and the waters of the Gulf with thousands of those Pasradan speedboats (they got 'em) armed with RPG's... I'm also aware that the Iranian armor capacity is limited, to say the least. The Iranian infantry on the other hand, if motivated by the idea that they are "rescuing" their fellow Iraqi Shiites from the clutches of the oil greedy canibalistic blood-drinking American heathens and kufr...and quite possibly the Iranian infantry could close Umm Qasr/Basrha, at least temorarily. Mogadishu writ large, followed by Dunkirk = Umm Qasr. That is, of course, assuming the classic DemLeftoNista "massive spontaneous Arab uprising" that we keep hearing about. IT COULD HAPPEN, MAYBE...IT COULD, CL
 
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macawman    RE:Supply Lines...   10/22/2003 12:45:57 PM
I think you guys have hit on Why the Iranians want the nuclear bomb. They know their military effectiveness is far worse than Saddam's Iraqi military was. The Iranian military situation will not change due to feckless leadership and Western military equipment embargoes. So look for continued clandestine development of the A-bomb in Iran. A weak military is the same reason why Pakistan developed the A-bomb to counter India's military might. Note: This looks like the same kind of ruse the North Korean's are trying but more blatantly.
 
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celebrim    RE:Supply Lines...   10/22/2003 1:25:15 PM
Well, this whole 'nightmare scenario' of multiple divisions of fanatical Iranian infantry flooding the US rear (presumably with the assistance of the 5%-20% or so of the Shia population that might support this sort of thing) presupposes that somehow Iran could amass enough troops to be a severe threat in an undetected manner. That isn't likely. Future Pearl Harbors are likely to be sabotage attacks (alla 9/11) carried out by very small numbers of non-conventional forces. You simply can't move any reasonably large force (above Battalion level?) without it showing up on satellite, air to ground radar, or other survelance. I would assume the border is being watched, and that an immenent attack would be met long before it penetrated into rear areas and that the rear areas while they would be inconveinced by large numbers of irregulars running lose behind the nominal 'front line' could quickly (but obviously not without some loses) back to a more battle ready deployment. The internal conflict and turmoil this would create within the Iraqi populace is far more worrisome than any threat to the US supply lines the Iranian military would represent. The more dangerous activity that the Iranians could carry out is the one which it appears that they are already carrying out, covertly forment dissent and aid pro-Sharia Shia clerics within Iraq. The only good thing about that is of course, the fact that a cleric might be getting support from the tradiational enemy of Iraq is enough to discredit him with the majority of the Iraqi population.
 
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Condor Legion    RE:Supply Lines...   10/30/2003 6:05:41 PM
macawman: I tend to agree with your analysis. Irans political situations and technical/military limitations are part and parcel to this hypothetical scenario of mine. celebrim: I didn't see it as being surge of uniformed infantry divisions. More a slow steady increasing wave of non-uniformed RPG-wielders (note the tie-in with the "Iraq RPGS & world tactics" thread in the Iraq sub) and suicide bomber types. My understanding from pre-war research is that the bulk and the cream of the Iranian ground forces are already on the Iraqi border. Also, where have the Mujahadin e-Khalq gone to? Reported as two brigade strength units of Iraqi anti-Saddamists supported by and trained in southern Iran. It is also my understanding that the Iranian air force is in exactly the same position that the Japanese air force found itself (minus the constant streams of enemy bombers of course) after Midway. In that they have a fair number of very poorly maintained and badly worn out US combat aircraft and a smaller number of Chinese combat aircraft. And that they suffer from a distinct lack of quality training. If it was me, those American made aircraft would be ripe for Kamikaze tactics (a link between Jihad tactics and Bushido code? Imagine that). The worlds most sophisticated guidance package is still a suicidal pilot. Here is where the air component differs from the ground tactics. If the Iranians launch this mythical kamikaze force in combination with as many as a thousand of the crude but effective anti-shipping missiles they are reported to have along their Gulf coast against ALL shipping in the Gulf. Well...I was more worried about it when I realized how many carrier strike groups were in the Gulf during OIF and how exposed they were, but then the Iraqi air force didn't come out to play (again) and I stopped worrying about it. Now the lack of SAM armed ships in the Gulf worries me more. I believe that, given the above, the Iranians have the ability to sink or damage everything currently floating in the Gulf within 48 to 72 hours. After that, all bets are off cos the big stick is coming back. ALL ASSUMING, CL
 
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macawman    Who are the Iranian MEK ?   10/30/2003 10:50:20 PM
At one time mostly royalist Iranians violently opposed to the Shia theocracy. What really got the mullahs in Iran irate with the MEK was when the MEK blew up Ayatolla Khomeinie mausoleum, one of Iran's holiest shrines. The MEK fought with Saddam in the Iran-Iraq war. Iran has lobbied several SSMs at Iraqi MEK base camps over the years. The MEK have in return perpetrated a number of cross border raids into Iran. I would not be supprised if Iran gave us Bin Laden and/or his Al Queda followers in Iran for MEK leaders, if the US thought the 'catch' was worth it.
 
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bombard    Iranians in Iraq   11/10/2003 5:30:09 PM
There is already an Iranian Division with substantial combat experience in Iraq: The Bagram Milita of about 12,000 light infantry.
 
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jastayme3    RE:Who are the Iranian MEK ?   12/27/2005 11:20:30 AM
I would not be supprised if Iran gave us Bin Laden and/or his Al Queda followers in Iran for MEK leaders, if the US thought the 'catch' was worth it. ---------------------------- it's not worth it the possibility of the Iranian government becoming destabilized, is worth more then the possibility of finnally getting Ben-laden. doing something like that would unnecessarily hurt our credibility with future allies What will we do with Ben-Laden once we have him? He would be a nuisance to keep captive, a nuisance if we try to execute him, and quietly eliminating him isn't considered fair play, to say the least. Hopefully we can simply kill him in the course of the pursuit, but in the meantime... we don't know the Iranians have him anyway-or if we do it is knowledge I am not privy to.
 
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buyer    RE:Long Tail and the Bomb   12/29/2005 11:27:25 PM
Correct that our forces have been spread thin and supply chains may be strained, but those same supply chains are already set up and working to pump all of the logistical support currently needed in the area. The shift of focus from Iraq to Iran is not much of an additional stretch. Re. Iran and the bomb, there is a chain of thought going around that some positive effects could occur from this happening. Not that they are crazy enough to ever use it, but to provide some pollitical clout for a place at the table with the other players. Helping them become more of a participating country in the growth of globalization pushing them in turn to more of a partner with real countries. Just a wild idea but I found it intersting.
 
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