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Subject: Bang For the Buck
PowerPointRanger    9/10/2005 11:47:00 AM
I think the biggest concern within our military right now is an impractiacal obsession with sexy, expensive, headline-grabbing projects like the F-22 and the Osprey, at the expense of more mundane but badly-need purchases.

F-22: Okay, I understand that our fighters are getting old and worn from use. I understand that the side with the better weapon system has an advantage (etc...). But does all of that really matter if the things are so darned expensive you can't afford to buy a useful quantity? Does it really help our military to have a hot fighter if we don't have enough transport aircraft to fly in spare to keep the thing flying?

Osprey: This has SNAFU written all over it. It's expensive, suffers from numerous technical problems, and honestly is not that much better than what it replaces. In fact, it is so expensive that we won't be able to produce enough to replace all the helicopters that need to be replaced. Just think about all those Chinooks that went down in Afghanistan. In most cases they weren't even shot down, they just broke down because they built during the Vietnam era.

The US military needs to rethink its purchasing strategies. Okay, we're going to replace Comanches with armed Predators (at a substantial cost savings). That's a start. The F-35 can fill out the Airforce ranks (similar to the way the F-16 balanced the more expensive F-15). That will help. But is the F-22 really that much better than the F-35? It will cost about eight times as much. Do we get that much more for the premium price?
 
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   RE:Bang For the Buck   9/10/2005 12:18:15 PM
Hey There, I totally agree that without a war to deplete the F-15/F-16 we maybe lucky to get hardly any F-22 and even fewer F-35 than wanted by the US Military Sincerely, Keith
 
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doggtag    RE:Bang For the Buck   9/10/2005 1:02:19 PM
I agree with you again, Keith, only by serious rapid attrition to our current fleet will we ever see the new superfighters in any large numbers. It's funny that so many people try to justify the F-22 as being "twice the airplane of a F-15 in capabilities" or whatever...yet it doesn't carry twice as many AAMs, etc. Sure, we need some F/A-22s and F/A-35s (might as well call it that). But there's no reason we can't incorporate some of their electronics into new-build Eagles and Falcons (hell, we're supposedly gonna keep B-52 until about 2040...and they're not even new-built airframes! So what if we keep a 3 decade old airframe design in a fighter craft. This is the day and age when having the right electronics decides how capable your weapon is, not just the chassis or frame they're mounted in.) As for the USN: they've been getting their brand new do-all F/A-18E/Fs, so they shouldn't be in such a hurry to replace them with JSFs. I figure, if they didn't want the A-6F, A-12, or F-14D and follow-ons, and wanted all that money to get their F/A-18E/F line up and running rather than wait another decade and a half for JSFs, then they can just as well be content with getting more Super Hornets (cheaper than naval JSFs?). After all, we're no longer designing our aerial military to be a penetrative force except only after we bombard the crap out of our enemies with long range PGMs (cruise missiles and GPS bombs): you don't need super-stealthy aircraft for that. As for the V-22: I still think we had a lot more potential in our helicopter fleets (compare a 1960s single-engine, 2-bladed UH-1 to the latest twin-engined, 4-bladed UH-1Y) and rotary-wing designs, rather than taking such a giant (and costly complicated) leap forward with the Osprey program. Newer upgraded Chinooks and Super Stallions could've given us reasonably effective heavy lift for a fraction the cost, plus we'd have newer airframes that would last us another couple decades, but which time materials and electronics will have improved even more, perhaps making the Osprey more pocket-friendly by then.
 
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PowerPointRanger    UAV's   9/17/2005 12:44:43 PM
And what about UAV's? These things can serve the same function as a scout chopper at a fraction of the cost/risk. A Predator is exacly what I'm talking about when I say we need more bang for the buck. Yet we only have about 80 of these in spite of their heavy need/use.
 
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buyer    RE:UAV's   9/29/2005 3:15:40 PM
Actually F/A-22s are a lot more than twice as effective as F-15s and they are way better than F-35s. You currently have parity between F-15s and other world jets. Radar, about the same, speed, about the same, missile range, about the same. Each guy sees the other guy and shoots their missile about the same time and you have a 50/50 chance of who wins, if anyone. The rest of our aircraft will have to have a good number of these up front if they are to operate with air superiority.
 
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PowerPointRanger    F-22 Hype   10/10/2005 10:24:06 PM
High praise for a fighter that's never seen combat. Similar praise was heaped upon certain missiles during Vietnam. Those missiles never lived up to the hype. Don't get me wrong. The F-22 looks pretty hot. I'm sure it will be the best thing around. I'm just not sure it will be worth the (very big) price.
 
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   RE:F-22 Hype   10/17/2005 5:15:55 PM
Hey folks, I heard that the f/a-22 cost over 100,000,000 where new f-15E cost 80,000,000 not a big savings! but that includes modern electronics Sincerely, Keith
 
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buyer    RE:F/A-22 Business Case   10/17/2005 10:40:43 PM
Right ball park on the price delta. Operational testing has demonstrated the ability of one F/A-22 to take out as many as 8 F-15s. It has a tremendous success rate of something like 150 to 0... It's already in high rate production vs the F-35 which is really still a paper airplane with an IOC date around 2013. The Air Force has presented a business case for the F/A-22 with some convincing arguments of how little additional support aircraft are required for F/A-22s. Bird in the hand argument should rule. By time you get others up to speed they probably will cost more and not perform as well as advertised.
 
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   RE:F/A-22 Business Case   10/17/2005 10:57:29 PM
Hey Folks, I actually would prefur more f-35's myself. Sincerely, Keith
 
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skrip00    RE:F/A-22 is worth the cost.   10/17/2005 11:23:28 PM
The F/A-22 will be the USAF's last manned fighter. We need at least 300 of them. It was designed with a long lifespan in mind, with the possibility of extenisive upgrades to its sensor suite, avionics, and airframe. It is light years ahead of our nearest competitors. It is truely a good buy. The money has been spent gentlemen. Not buying it now would mean billions wasted. The F/A-35 should also be procured in masse, and in fact 1800 of em are slated to be built. These can only compliment the F/A-22, and never truely do its job as well. You naysayers need to realize a few things. 1. The F/A-22 and F/A-35 offer improved survivability. Protecting our pilots (very important). 2. These aircraft are designed to last a long time. 3. These aircraft are vastly superior to the current generation of aircraft. As a taxpayer, i feel the US Gov't should allocate the funding for these two aircraft projects. The US is number 1 for many reasons, one of them being our military power. I feel that we should always procure the latest weapons systems so that we will always have an obscene edge over our enemies. Last i checked, foreign air forces are slowly gaining the capability to give our current air force a run for its money. The F-15C is no longer top dog and should serve its retirement in dignity backing F/A-22s up.
 
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blacksmith    The future is unmanned tactical air power   10/18/2005 10:29:34 PM
I only give the F-22 a pass because it is (at long last) finally in production. Build a few silver bullet squadrons to bridge the gap until unmanned tactical counter-air is in place. The F-35 is too late to make the cut. It will be a hugely expensive exercise in building what amounts to old technology. Stealth is a product of the late '70s. Manned tactical aviation is at the same point as cavalry around the end WW I, when trucks and tanks were just coming in on their own. The future is unmanned.
 
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buyer    RE:Bang For the Buck   10/19/2005 5:04:55 PM
The short answer to your question is yes. It is that much better. Today we are essentially equal between F-15s and the bad guys, that is we see each other about the same time and get off a shot at each other at about the same time. We have a lot of parity. No one wants to be in a fair fight. We want overwhelming superior hardware to the point that the enemy pilots won't even launch or attempt to engage due to the probability of a sure death. There are many ways to measure effectivness but F/A-22 is in the vicinity of 5-8 times as effective as an F-15. F/A-22 is about three times as effective as an F-35 if it meets its performance spec. As for the price, go out today and try to buy an F-35 at that price. The history shows that all programs have cost growth. The F/A-22, now that design and captial investments are somewhat past, can sell for a little over a $100M vs maybe $70M for the others. The others will require significant additional support aircraft to achieve the same mission plus they have a higher loss ratio so you had better start with three or four times the jets, plus jammers, awacs etc... Going cheap may sound like the way to go but it's not a deal if it can't decisively win.
 
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immortality    RE:Bang For the Buck   10/31/2005 12:39:35 PM
I absolutely agree that we need to spend the money on UAV's. For about a million reasons. To start with, stealth technology incorporated in a smaller airfraime UAV will enhance it's low radar signature. Plus, an unmanned plane can do way more extreme acrobatic manuevers than a man can stand without passing out(including shaking off incomming fire). If it does get shot down, there's is no political dillema with POW pilots.They can fly for a longer time without worrying about exhausted pilots and can cover an area for a longer period. Plus, you could afford to specialize. The idea is prety much a stealth cruise missile that can drop a couple of jdams, hellfires, or tag enemy aircraft with missiles guided from an awacs. The older generation of the airforce, like my dad may not like it, but the UAV fighter/ bomber is the best way.
 
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Galrahn    RE:Bang For the Buck   11/1/2005 1:07:58 AM
The idea that UAVs are capable of filling the fighter role of the USAF is still a huge question, in particular there are serious questions whether jamming capabilities, satellite denial capabilities, potential lack of operational control capability at long range, and other strategies will prevent fighters from being unmanned for sometime without significant improvement to artificial intelligence systems. The US (and the world for that matter) is several decades away from sufficient artificial intelligence to be trusted to sustain armed unmanned fighter systems without human interaction, so for now unmanned improvements are dedicated to land attack vehicles where operational capability will usually allow controllers to better control the unmanned vehicle. Which means the replacement for the F-15C is needed, and the F-22 is a great replacement in my opinion. Keep in mind the operational capability of the F-22 has been determined more from Red Flag exercises as of 2003 and beyond, not computer simulation. Red Flag puts the very best F-15C pilots in the USAF against the F-22, and when 2 F-22s wipe entire 12 plane flights of F-15Cs flown by experienced pilots, without even being seen by the F-15C pilots until all the F-15Cs are considered destroyed in the exercise, perhaps the capability of the F-22 might not be as exaggerated, and perhaps the opinions of the F-15C pilots put some credibility behind the hype. In Red Flag fighter exercises, both sides have had the latest and greatest ECM and AWACS support, so it isn't like the USAF is cheating the results, otherwise the F-15C pilots would likely not be so impressed by the F-22. As for the F-35, until it is built I don't want to comment. For the amount of money being spent, it would be an enormous letdown if the plane came up short on any capability, but since the F-22 has so far lived up and even exceeded some expectations, I'll refrain from criticizing the F-35 until it is warranted. For the Navy, since they are retiring the best fighter in the US Navy in my opinion, specifically the F-14D, who knows what they are thinking. Until the Indian Navy, Chinese Navy, or some other Navy modernize long range Naval Air capabilities, it is likely the Navy won't need anything beyond the F-18 models for decades. The Navy is lucky though, right now it is enjoying the same lull that the US Navy enjoyed after WWII, with about 20 years before another country would be in a position to challenge the US Navy at sea. That is a lot of time for wise R&D, allowing the Navy to take its time to approaching Naval Air Power in the 21st century. The Air Force doesn't have that luxury, since longer range ballistic missiles are becoming more readily available, not to mention the most modern fighter in the world before the F-22 was questionably the F-15, although I can think of a few others that 'potentially' outperform the F-15C. The original poster mentioned the Osprey. I agree the Osprey costs too much for what is supposedly gained. I think it is a great concept though, with tremendous long term potential, however the Osprey is going to have to earn its reputation in combat as anything other than a pork barrel project, and that reputation could potentially be very costly in human life and not be as favorable as the Marine Corp wants it to be. However, I believe if the Osprey itself never becomes a main component of the Marine Corp. or Navy, but the next generation tilt rotor aircraft do, the Osprey would represent a major success. I am a firm believer sometimes the US has to buy into expensive concepts in order to reap the long term rewards. The helicopter as a technology actually falls in this category, as many of the same criticisms of today?s Osprey were initially said about the helicopter until the Korean War.
 
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PowerPointRanger    I think people are missing my point   11/6/2005 2:57:10 PM
Okay, maybe the F-22 can take out a squardon of F-15's in simulated combat. Maybe it is worth $200 million each. What I'm talking about is not whether it is better, but is it PRACTICAL? To paraphrase Pres. Bush: Do we want want to shoot a $2 million cruise missle at $100 tent with a terror leader and end up killing a camel? In that respect, a JDAM is a very practical weapon (cheap and effictive). Okay, so the F-22 is a hot fighter. Who are we using it against? For all the hype of the China & N. Korea threats, they still mostly use something comparable to a MiG 21 (J-7) or MiG 23 (J-8). These are 30 or 40 year-old designs! They are being replaced by the J-10 & J-11/Su-27 (comparable to the F-16's & F-15 respectively, which we're about to retire). Please note that the Chinese have scaled back orders of these two designs are a result of serious design flaws and may buy only 100 of each. Even today, with all the talk of modernization, the most common aircraft in the Chinese inventory is the ancient J-6 (MiG 19) of which it has 2466 (more than half of it's inventory). Compare this to to US forces with an inventory of about 1600 modern fighter/attack aircraft. (Even aircraft we're about to retire are modern compared to what China has.) What about North Korea? Same thing. Iran? Same thing, but with obsolete US aircraft, which probably can't even fly because of a lack of spare parts. Okay, who else are we going to use these F-22's against? France?
 
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skrip00    RE:I think people are missing my point   11/6/2005 3:01:39 PM
The point is, the USAF does not want to risk ever losing ground in air combat. Even though we never fight countries like NK or China, its due to the fact we can maintain total air dominance, and hence win the war.
 
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