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Subject: Air Power Cannot Do It Alone Again
SYSOP    5/19/2015 5:45:26 AM
 
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keffler25       5/19/2015 10:06:12 AM
Thus having air controllers with the friendly troops on the ground was important. Unfortunately it was not possible to do that with most of the friendlies. That was because over two-thirds of Iraqi Army units were not reliable or competent enough to assign Western air controllers. The Kurds and a few Iraqi Special Operations units could be relied on to protect and effectively use air controllers but the Kurds would not operate outside their traditional homelands in northern Iraq and northeast Syria. There were very few special operations units. Iran supported Shia militias and the Shia brigade from Lebanon refuses to work with Western troops or air power. 
 
Airpower when it comes to servicing targets is a lot like what I believe artillery to be. It can destroy, but unless there is someone there to stand on that patch of ground after, all you have done is destroyed.    
 
Now there is a way that airpower can deny ground, but it is the Roman way.  
 
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trenchsol       5/19/2015 10:13:48 AM
If nothing else, air strikes make pro-Iranian militias quite upset. When Ramadi fell, Shiite Militia leadership blamed PM Abadi for it. They said he tried to balance American and Iranian role in the conflict. Allegedly, Abadi followed America advice and relied on loyal Sunni fighters to defend the city. Found it on i24 news.
 
Now, Shiite Militias are about to launch an offensive to retake Ramadi. Some commented that local population, which is Sunni, might choose to support IS rather than have Iranian irregulars invading their homes.
 
In the north, Baiji is about to fall despite governments success in Tikrit, which is just south of it. Looks like Iranian militias just looted the town and left.
 
 
 
 
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Spiky       5/19/2015 10:16:43 AM
Smart, and I don't blame them: "...but the Kurds would not operate outside their traditional homelands in northern Iraq and northeast Syria." In general this is true, but there are exceptions.
 
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Spiky    ISIS, deja vu   5/19/2015 10:28:38 AM
Two weeks ago I said to not be surprised when ISIS makes gains, contrary to the mainstream media message (being fed, in general, by the U.S. leadership and political elite) that ISIS is in retreat and losing. Now, voila! Ramadi falls to everyone's shock. Ramadi fell because ISIS is very lethally effective and secretly supported both logistically and financially.
 
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keffler25       5/19/2015 10:59:28 AM
Saudis for the money, but I wonder who supplies the weapons. 
 
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trenchsol       5/19/2015 2:57:33 PM
Keffler, Croatia is on Interpol sh*t list for years for illegal arms trade, just like Serbia, which is mentioned in your article. Every now and then the corpse id found and case ends up unresolved. People believe it is all about arms trade. All of us (countries of former Yugoslavia) had UN embargo during times of our wars. All of us mastered a trade of weapon trafficking.
 
Not just a trafficking, but manufacturing, too. There are small illegal shops here manufacturing quality copies of UZI, Beretta M12 and TEC-9 (latter in full auto version, of course). The weapons are allegedly liked by Euro gangsters for quality, reliability and difficulty of being traced.
 
 
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Nate Dog    Where has the US come by this newly found incompetnec   5/19/2015 7:48:32 PM
At first, we will only provide air support for Iraqi regulars, now its for mixed sectarian attacks, read, militias now ok.
What a ridiculous place you've put yourselves in.
Wonderful, US forces are combating ISIL extremism, only, they're allowing Shia extremists to do the exact same, under an impenetrable air umbrella, with the added bonus, as opposed to ISIL, or even Israel for that matter, that they do it on 'the same side' as western forces so Media barely covers atrocities Shia are committing against the 'liberated civilians'.
What the absolute fuck.
Keffer, i told you from the begging the US shouldn't get involved in this shit storm, and you said barbarism should be countered at every turn. Perhaps thats right, but barbarians are everywhere, picking and choosing these ones to stop.... 
U.S. have now placed themselves firmly on the Shia side of this sectarian conflagration. What idiocy. Western forces aren't stopping barbarians, we're just helping arabs kill arabs. Think they hated us before? Wait till we close off this decade with another half million dead arabs on our hands firmly blamed on us. What will they think of us then?
And from a purely pragmatic cold blooded point of view. Why chose Shia?!?! They're 10% of muslims and they're the ones WITHOUT all the oil? What's our fucking game plan here?!? 
 
Insane situation.
And Spiky, read back, we all said it. This was obvious. The only place ISIL isn't winning, and genuinely isn't winning is against the Kurds. You wont see them coming to Iraqi arabs rescue. Its not in their interests, and its also outside their ability. They win at home because its close to their supply lines. They can no more mount an expedition of conquest away from their supply lines than the Iraqi's can.
 
So, Iraq's a lost cause. Syria is a lost cause. Yemen is shaping up to be a basket case. Anybody care to place a wager where next? 
Taking bets. All comers. 
 
 
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Spiky    Nate Dog   5/19/2015 9:07:59 PM
"Anybody care to place a wager where next?".......... well, now that you ask, I would probably also keep a close eye on the Sinai, as things are going to get worse there too.
 
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trenchsol       5/19/2015 9:11:24 PM
Nate Dog, at this moment, it looks like US is trying to keep and maintain friendly relations with official government. Except those relations were not that friendly even before this. It was sort of tense alliance. I am not justifying anything, just trying to answer your question about motives. 
 
How is all this going to end ? Perhaps similar to Somalia. Until 2006 it was balance of power between warlords and their clans. Then came Islamic Court Unions, which swept reign of warlords away. It forced them to either side with the government or with ICU. ICU was defeated and Al-Shabaab took their place.And that is how Somalia looks today.
 
By that analogy, I believe that there are years of chaos ahead, because no side can gain significant advantage and outside players have nobody to support. At some point something new will emerge and force all local players to take sides and break the deadlock.
 
 
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keffler25       5/19/2015 10:17:04 PM
Two very bad places... Golan and the Lebanon border.
 
Gaza is almost a shared security risk with Egypt so it can be managed for the moment. But that north can be flanked.
 
As for Iraq (and Afghanistan) I told you that Obama is a HATER. He, the descendant of American Marxists and British colonial rebels hates the United States and for all that it stands.
 
He almost did everything in his power to damage us. It will be a miracle if we survive him and his administration.   
 
Grit our teeth and hang on.  
 
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