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Subject: Gas the caves?
00_Chem_AJB    7/24/2007 11:46:33 PM
How effective would gas, say mustard gas or lewisite, delivered by bombardment or dispersed from canisters be against an heavily entrenched enemy, who was using fortifications and caves (Not unlike the Japanese at Iwo Jima)
 
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RockyMTNClimber    OC and other non lethal gasses   7/25/2007 11:49:20 AM

How effective would gas, say mustard gas or lewisite, delivered by bombardment or dispersed from canisters be against an heavily entrenched enemy, who was using fortifications and caves (Not unlike the Japanese at Iwo Jima)


 Will get the job done without the nasty side effects.
 
Check Six
 
Rocky
 
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paul1970    other gases...   7/25/2007 11:56:01 AM
 how about hitting them with Homokaasu????  
 
that will give them a real nasty dilema if they wish to stay true to the Islamic faith....     :-)
 
 
Paul
 
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FJV       7/25/2007 12:43:24 PM
It will only be effective when used the 1st time, because of the suprise effect.

After the 1st suprise WW1 and the Iran Iraq war shows that enemies rapidly learn to deal with it.


 
 
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00_Chem_AJB       7/26/2007 7:49:31 PM
True, however they may not have the resources available to deal with another attack, for example a gas mask alone wont save you from vesicant agents. Plus chemical weapons have a massive demoralising effect against an unprepared enemy,
 
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Nichevo       7/27/2007 1:00:37 AM
1)  what is Homokaasu?  A pork product?

2)  Instead of a mass attack like Hussein's which would kill innocents indiscriminately, how about a bio agent?  With a long incubation period and a particular cure.  Arrange to infect some AQ people who are to go free and continue their activities.  They meet with others...they meet with others...they meet with others..and so on. Perhaps eventually one meets with OBL.

You can cure sick people, but no one else readily can. 

In the isolated mountain areas, it would not soon infect the rest of the country.  Anyone who was infected, especially early (its virulence would fade over generations of transmission) could be cured if they comply with us.  With their primitive medical technology they would be very susceptible. 


 
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WarNerd       7/27/2007 3:04:02 AM

2)  Instead of a mass attack like Hussein's which would kill innocents indiscriminately, how about a bio agent?  With a long incubation period and a particular cure.  Arrange to infect some AQ people who are to go free and continue their activities.  They meet with others...they meet with others...they meet with others..and so on. Perhaps eventually one meets with OBL.

You can cure sick people, but no one else readily can. 

In the isolated mountain areas, it would not soon infect the rest of the country.  Anyone who was infected, especially early (its virulence would fade over generations of transmission) could be cured if they comply with us.  With their primitive medical technology they would be very susceptible. 


 
First, what bug do you have in mind? 
 Probably have to be something that spreads without an intermediate vector like fleas or mosquitoes.  Direct contact is not reliable enough and can be blocked by isolation, so I bet you are assuming it is passed by inhalation.  Sounds like smallpoxs or one of the genetically modified flu virus that the soviets developed.

Don't take this to harshly, but you obviously have never research bio warfare.

This is an Very Bad Idea.
 
Bio weapon spread cannot be controled.  And that "isolated" mountain area is not very isolated, just nearly impossible to sneak into and poke around without being spotted. 
 
So expect it to spread, first to the rest of Pakistan, then India.  Thats nearly 1/3 of the world's population that you need to be ready to treat. If you are not ready, then it will become a global pandemic, and even if you are expect to lose 1% of the infected that you treat
 
The only way to head this off would be a massive global vacination campaign, starting BEFORE you deploy your weapon (vacines take time to work).  Think you can keep it secret?  If you cannot, then your chance of achieving any significant effect rapidly is reduced to zero.
 
 Unless, that is, ticking off the entire planet is your idea of success.
 
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Nichevo       7/27/2007 3:29:32 AM



2)  Instead of a mass attack like Hussein's which would kill innocents indiscriminately, how about a bio agent?  With a long incubation period and a particular cure.  Arrange to infect some AQ people who are to go free and continue their activities.  They meet with others...they meet with others...they meet with others..and so on. Perhaps eventually one meets with OBL.

You can cure sick people, but no one else readily can. 

In the isolated mountain areas, it would not soon infect the rest of the country.  Anyone who was infected, especially early (its virulence would fade over generations of transmission) could be cured if they comply with us.  With their primitive medical technology they would be very susceptible. 



 

First, what bug do you have in mind? 

 Probably have to be something that spreads without an intermediate vector like fleas or mosquitoes.  Direct contact is not reliable enough and can be blocked by isolation, so I bet you are assuming it is passed by inhalation.  Sounds like smallpoxs or one of the genetically modified flu virus that the soviets developed.

Don't take this to harshly, but you obviously have never research bio warfare.


Now I have a non-speller telling me what I know and don't know?  How much detail do you want, in a public forum?  This IS a hypothetical. 


Let's say for the sake of argument that we catch a group of AQ in the Tora Bora area, infect them secretly, then let them think they escaped.  Simple enough?    Gas 'em, needle 'em, put it in their chow, give 'em fleas.  Actually I like that, give 'em fleas.  Okay, bubonic or better yet pneumonic plague, spread by vermin.  They are put in a holding cell and exposed - lousy bedding.  Many ways to skin the cat, or to infect it.


Smallpox could also work depending on vaccination standards, but would be suspicious.  There are other options...Bubonic would be a natural in this region of course.  Hantavirus maybe.  Hepatitis.  A nice superflu would make sense, but as I think you suggest, might be TOO easily spread.  Something with precedents so it doesn't look too fishy.

It's true I was considering an engineered toxin as I'm not sure anything would have a long enough incubation period.



This is an Very Bad Idea.

 

Bio weapon spread cannot be controled.  And that "isolated" mountain area is not very isolated, just nearly impossible to sneak into and poke around without being spotted. 
 
Do YOU know this area?  Last I recall it was being isolated, by the Pak army.  These are hill people, as a rule they don't get out to the city much.  There would also have to be extensive surveillance and evaluation of legitimate contacts. 

It had occurred to me to present this argument another way, with some sort of radioactive taggant or traceable nonlethal bacteria, simply to make them easier to find.



So expect it to spread, first to the rest of Pakistan, then India.  Thats nearly 1/3 of the world's population that you need to be ready to treat. If you are not ready, then it will become a global pandemic, and even if you are expect to lose 1% of the infected that you treat

Do they vaccinate for smallpox in India/Pak?  They might.  I bet the hill people are the last to get it.  We know that Muslims don't like Western vaccines if Nigeria is an example.  Easy enough campaign to start before or during. 

Besides, while I would regret India, Pak to some extent buys this by not dealing with the problem another way.  Oh I would regret pak too, but I'm an old softie.

 

The only way to head this off would be a massive global vacination campaign, starting BEFORE you deploy your weapon (vacines take time to work).  Think you can keep it secret?  If you cannot, then your chance of achieving any significant effect rapidly is reduced to zero.


Developing countries get plague all the time.  I don't care if you kill everyone in the tribal areas; you would want to limit its spread outside.  Pak-controlled news reports of a sad outbreak in the hill people (obviously we would have to have Musharraf onside) wouldn't be mega suspicious.

It could also be something nonlethal!  Just so we know who their primary, secondary, tertiary contacts are.  

 Unless, that is, ticking off the entire planet is your idea of success.


Caring less and less.  And I repeat this WAS a hypothetical. 

 
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swhitebull    Not Easy   7/27/2007 6:52:29 PM
 
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swhitebull    Not Easy   7/27/2007 6:54:50 PM
" target="_blank">link
 
 
 
swhitebull  - lots more on how these were engineered, and designed to withstand gas -  maybe not a MOAB or 2 though 
 
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Yimmy       7/27/2007 7:55:33 PM
To deal with cave systems all you need do is patrol the top and block off any ventilation shafts, while setting a fire at the entrance... people have to breath.
 
 
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Nichevo       7/27/2007 8:19:55 PM

To deal with cave systems all you need do is patrol the top and block off any ventilation shafts, while setting a fire at the entrance... people have to breath.
 


With my scheme you just have to infect one of those mule teams.  That actually makes it easier - anthrax.  I bet people get blasted with dust all the time in those mountains.  Dump a few kilos of anthrax spores on them from the cliff above while they're schlepping in OBL's caviar and nail clippers.  First thing they do is brush off the dust; it gets on the bunker crew carrying in the stuff; it is already on the stuff; it gets in the air ducts; and in a bunker for a dozen people, how likely is it OBL never meets 'em?  Just from tracking it around everybody would get nailed. 

Hey, try it and see if it works ;>
 
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swhitebull       7/27/2007 9:18:34 PM

To deal with cave systems all you need do is patrol the top and block off any ventilation shafts, while setting a fire at the entrance... people have to breath.
 

I'm trying to find the article that i read several years ago, but millions of dollars (dinars) were poured into these cave complexes, including self-contained breathing refuges. Keep in mind, bin laden comes from an engineering family big time, had the resources and the knowledge to design in anticipation of what the soviets were going and were doing, up to and including gas.
Im not defending OBL, but with the right resources and the time, it becomes a virtual Maginot Line fortress. If youve ever seen a schematic of a typical peice of the fortress, they included protection against the use of gas. I cant see OBL omitting those kind of defenses, given his resources.
 
 
btw - here's the link that didnt work. It's one of the Osprey books:
 
Afghanistan Cave Complexes 1979-2004: "Mountain Strongholds of the Mujahideen, Taliban & Al Qaeda" (Paperback)
by Mir Bahmanyar (Author), Ian Palmer (Author) "One of the major problems the Soviet Union faced during its invasion into Afghanistan was the difficulty in expelling Mujahideen from the cave and tunnel..." (more)
 
link
 
 
swhitebull
 

 
 
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00_Chem_AJB       7/27/2007 10:24:37 PM
Tall Boy or Grand Slam any one? What about hitting their water supply? Poisoning your enemies water has been one of the oldest forms of chemical warfare.
 
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