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Subject: Scorekeeping In Afghanistan
SYSOP    1/26/2015 5:27:00 AM
 
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joe6pack       1/26/2015 1:51:23 PM
And victory is determined by a people that are absolutely fine with stoning rape victims to death... yeah.. big win.
 
Lets address some of the points:
 "Only ten percent respect the Taliban" - and that is enough lunatics to topple or destabilize any country on the planet.. To give an over used example.. The Nazi's took Germany with a much smaller percentage.. an at their peak.. were probably no more than 12 percent of the population..
 
"Afghans scoff at that, if only because most would rather die fighting rather than submit to Taliban rule again. " - Talk is cheap, Afghans do a lot of it. 
 
"Most Afghans are well aware that in many way their lives are much better. GDP has grown continuously since 2001 with average family income increasing noticeably each year.."  - Now, subtract the drug crops and billions in foreign aid...  What happens when the foreign aid dries up and the drug crops go completely unchecked?
 
 
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Yimmy       1/26/2015 3:20:58 PM
I don't know the source of those statistics- but 90% of Afghan's supporting the ANA doesn't sound that likely.  For a start, it is a socio-historical culture in Afghanistan to be a fighter.... to have it as your only job, in a regimented manner on the behalf of the elites in Kabul, perhaps isn't that highly regarded.
 
In previous polls I have seen - the ANP were far more respected.  In Afghan society it is traditionally the village elders and religious leaders who determine justice- a far more respected position.
 
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kerravon       1/28/2015 2:52:17 AM
"I don't know the source of those statistics- but 90% of Afghan's supporting the ANA doesn't sound that likely"

Here is one poll:

http://asiafoundation.org/publications/pdf/989

which shows (on page 41) that 93% think the ANA is honest and fair, compared to 85% for the ANP. I've seen other polls that say about 85% support/trust the ANA.
 
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kerravon       1/28/2015 3:04:07 AM
joe6pack,

"And victory is determined by a people that are absolutely fine with stoning rape victims to death... yeah.. big win."

How would you suggest converting a population of nutcases to become a clone of Switzerland? I consider defeating the Taliban and installing democracy - including giving women the vote - to be part of the long-term strategy.

SP:"Only ten percent respect the Taliban"

"The Nazi's took Germany with a much smaller percentage"

The Nazis came to power via what was effectively a military coup. Only a very small number of people are required to stage a military coup. The US presence basically guards against a military coup upsetting the 90% of the Afghan people who are basically allies.

SP:"Afghans scoff at that, if only because most would rather die fighting rather than submit to Taliban rule again."

"Talk is cheap, Afghans do a lot of it."

They don't just talk. They volunteer to put their lives on the line by joining the ANA and ANP, despite the fairly alarming death rate there. What more do you want the Afghans to do? They are using their own troops to fight enemies of the US. Enemies that are far worse than the failings of the Afghan people as a whole. The Afghan population is overwhelmingly in favour of having US troops in their country. What more do you want of these people? They don't want the Taliban in their country, but infidels from America are fine. I think we have the essential ingredients to change Afghan culture over a period of decades. But I also think we're starting from a pretty good point where the Afghans have a democracy and consider Americans to be allies.
 
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kerravon       1/28/2015 3:17:52 AM
Also note that the problem of culture change is even bigger in other countries. While approximately 85% of Afghans supported the US invading their country, only about 50% of Iraqis did. The problem of making Arabs join the 21st century is bigger than getting the Afghans to do so. Anyway, the good news is that the nation-building task given to US troops in Afghanistan and Iraq is now over. The US is free to only fight conventional wars now, and simply hand over control to an allotment of locals after victory.
 
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joe6pack    Kerravon   1/28/2015 12:07:33 PM
I was debating whether to respond in detail -  basically, I "hope" your more optimistic outlook is correct.
 
But some responses:
>How would you suggest converting a population of nut cases to become a clone of Switzerland?
 
I wouldn't.  By definition, lunatics are very difficult to cure / reform.  My general point here was that I dislike the spin on the article: "....effort in Afghanistan a failure, most Afghans disagree" The lunatics view of how the asylum is being run, isn't really relevant in contrast to a sane and intelligent review of the facts.
 
 > - to be part of the long-term strategy.
A strategy the American and European public / politicians (for the most part), no longer have the stomach for.  The cost in blood, treasure, sweat and tears is being looked at as a sunk cost and we are cutting our losses.  
 
>Afghan people who are basically allies
 My opinion, that is just not in anyway true.. or at least how most people would define an "ally".  We are thrice damned at least.. as Invaders, Foreigners and Infidels.   What we are, I believe, is a useful idiot.. that pours money into their pockets and gets leveraged (occasionally tricked) in to settling old scores.  I'm not saying the Afghans are stupid..
 
>They volunteer to put their lives on the line by joining the ANA and ANP, despite the fairly alarming death rate there.
 
Lets discuss this for a moment.. The Afghan government, can  not afford the ANA and ANP without massive foreign funding.  That funding is drying up.   How long will they be "loyal" as paychecks get reduced / cut .. or they are forced to downsize?    Also, this is the same ANA and ANP managed by prior Warlords.. wonder how that will work out long term?
 
>The Afghan population is overwhelmingly in favour of having US troops in their country
Please provide the survey(s) and methodology used.. to back that statement.
 
 
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kerravon       1/28/2015 8:45:20 PM
joe6pack,

PE:"How would you suggest converting a population of nut cases to become a clone of Switzerland?"

"I wouldn't. By definition, lunatics are very difficult to cure / reform."

Do you think there is a genetic reason for them to be lunatics? Thus incurable, needing to be wiped out instead? Or is it a cultural thing which we may be able to influence now that the US military has kindly introduced freedom of speech?

SP:"....effort in Afghanistan a failure, most Afghans disagree"

"The lunatics view of how the asylum is being run, isn't really relevant in contrast to a sane and intelligent review of the facts."

I'm not sure how you arrive at such a negative conclusion. It is the Afghans who are the ones actually living there. If they are happy with their country being invaded, their government being toppled, and a new system of democracy being introduced, then I'm happy to take them at their word. Basically if they're happy, I'm happy. I want them to like democracy and freedom of speech, and women voting, and girls going to school. It's an amazing advance from what used to be there.

"A strategy the American and European public / politicians (for the most part), no longer have the stomach for. The cost in blood, treasure, sweat and tears is being looked at as a sunk cost and we are cutting our losses."

This is a failing of the West, not of the Afghans. Regardless, the pain is over now already. Since 2015-01-01. There is only a small number of troops left in Afghanistan, same as there is in Kosovo. These small missions with a US death rate of close to 0 are something that the US public should be able to stomach. There's more troops (doing nothing) in South Korea. No-one cares about these missions where no-one actually dies.

PE:"Afghan people who are basically allies"

"My opinion, that is just not in anyway true.. or at least how most people would define an "ally". We are thrice damned at least.. as Invaders, Foreigners and Infidels."

This is simply not true. The Afghans are basically nice people. They strongly supported "invaders/foreigners/non-Muslims" coming into their country. This is shown in the opinion polls, plus places like the Loya Jirga where they asked Karzai to sign the BSA, and every presidential candidate supported signing the BSA too. If you're looking for people who reject us for being invaders/foreigners/non-Muslims, then you need to look at an Arab country like Iraq where 50% of the population were like that. Egypt is probably 90% enemy. The Afghans are simply not enemies. The vast bulk are on our side.

"What we are, I believe, is a useful idiot.. that pours money into their pockets and gets leveraged (occasionally tricked) in to settling old scores. I'm not saying the Afghans are stupid.."

I wouldn't call American (note that I am Australian) largesse being a "useful idiot". I would call the Americans wonderful people for helping a country to its feet. And it is the Americans who have cleverly arranged for Afghans to spill their own blood to fight against American enemies. Basically good Muslims killing bad Muslims. After 9/11, what better result could you possibly hope for?

PE:"They volunteer to put their lives on the line by joining the ANA and ANP, despite the fairly alarming death rate there."

"Lets discuss this for a moment.. The Afghan government, can not afford the ANA and ANP without massive foreign funding."

It's true that they can't afford it themselves, but I don't consider bankrolling the ANA/ANP to be "massive foreign funding". I consider it to be cheap (especially when compared to 100,000 US troops in Afghanistan, or 160,000 US troops in Iraq), and it is the best value you can possibly get for foreign aid. Basically this foreign aid is being used to kill enemies of America. If you think the foreign aid is too much, then cut all foreign aid to places like Africa, and channel it all into Afghanistan.

"That funding is drying up."

I do not believe that the bankrolling of ANA/ANP is due to be removed. If it is, it would be a tragic mistake.

"How long will they be "loyal" as paychecks get reduced / cut .. or they are forced to downsize? Also, this is the same ANA and ANP managed by prior Warlords.. wonder how that will work out long term?"

I believe that the vast majority of the ANA/ANP are loyal to their democratically-elected government, as they are trained to be. Even if they are forced to downsize, they vastly outnumber the Taliban and have access to heavy weapons and air power that the Taliban don't. I also don't consider them to be under warlord management. In fact, the warlords were very upset when the West started building the ANA from scratch, and asked the warlords to disband. They didn't like the fact that this force was outside of their control, and NOT loyal to any warlord. We are very lucky that we avoided having a war with the Northern Alliance. That was a very real possibility. Fortunately we were able to win that diplomatically. The only price that needed to be paid was for the Northern Alliance to have the key positions of Defence, Interior and Foreign Affairs. For just a few years. A very small price to pay. The thug Rabbani squealed as the presidency was taken away from him too. Once again, we were very lucky. You might like to read this too:

http://antisubjugator.blogspot.com.au/2007/02/afghan-war.html

PE:"The Afghan population is overwhelmingly in favour of having US troops in their country"

"Please provide the survey(s) and methodology used.. to back that statement."

I am surprised you didn't already know this. The opinion polls have been released for many years. Here is one:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/11_01_10_afghanpoll.pdf

http://www.bbc.co.uk/pressoffice/pressreleases/stories/2010/01_january/11/poll.shtml

See Q16. 83% support the liberation. In a previous year it was as high as 88%. I don't think you can ask for better friends than that. If the US had a dictator and foreigners managed to liberate the US, would Americans be 88% in favour of the action?

BTW, you mentioned you hoped my rosy picture was right. You might like to read this post of mine:

http://antisubjugator.blogspot.com.au/2015/01/major-milestone.html

Basically, I now consider the pain to be over.
 
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kerravon       1/28/2015 9:13:52 PM
Also, if you like my Afghan War analysis, you might also like the Iraq one:

http://antisubjugator.blogspot.com.au/2007/02/iraq-war.html

Also, looking at this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghan_National_Army

200,000 troops being paid $240/month comes to about $0.6 billion/year. Compared to the US military budget of something like $700 billion/year. For a very small amount of money, we have outsourced the response to 9/11 to some Muslim allies, who are willing to take a high casualty rate to defeat our enemies. On 9/11 it was unclear if we had any allies in the Muslim world at all, and we may have been faced with needing to do a genocide or something. I think we were very lucky indeed that all these Muslims were willing to step forward to fight our Muslim enemies, and willing to do it for a low cost and high casualty rate. In Iraq we even arranged for them to spend their own money (from oil revenue) to do this. As far as I can see, that's an absolute bargain.
 
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Spiky       2/1/2015 11:26:47 AM
"In early 2001 only a million children were in school, all of them boys. Now there are eight million in school, and 40 percent are girls. Back then there were only 10,000 phones in the country, all land lines in cities. Now there are 17 million cell phones with access even in remote rural areas." ........ quite significant gains for Afghanistan.
 
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keffler25       2/1/2015 11:39:14 AM
It doesn't take a lot of effort to retrograde progress. Take a look at Donetsk.
 
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