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Subject: Defeat In Yemen
SYSOP    4/8/2015 6:34:47 AM
 
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Spiky    Yemen   4/8/2015 1:07:36 PM
For the U.S., Yemen is an epic failure politically, logistically, and intelligence wise. As stated, agree, Yemen is definitely looking to become even more of terrorist breeding ground than before: "Now that the Sunni Arab neighbors of Yemen have intervened there is guaranteed to be months of chaos, the kind of environment Islamic terrorists thrive in."
 
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trenchsol       4/8/2015 8:22:05 PM
Well, now everyone in Yemen will be killing whoever they don't like and later explain: "I've seen the document, he was working for CIA". Very convenient.
 
 
 
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Hari Sud       4/8/2015 8:41:50 PM
Another great failure for US. They are terribly in experienced, the US opted to exploit Sunni /Shia differences but did not know how. Hence failure in built in US policies. Three cheers to the US State Department and the Whitehouse policy makers.
 
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trenchsol       4/9/2015 1:25:54 AM
Those are not just 'differences'. Animosity between Shia and Sunni is centuries old, much older than United States itself. Unfortunately US opted for nothing like exploiting it, because current president doesn't want to know anything about it. He repeatedly said that he is only interested in chasing terrorists around the globe. For him it is just a police job, an attitude common among the politicians before year 2001. It was called Global War on Terrorism, because it was understood that solution requires active involvement in the affairs of the countries where it comes from. Not necessarily a hostile involvement.
 
Not any more. Now it is just about killing some individuals and hoping it will go away.No more GWOT, you don't even here that phrase any more.
 
They killed Al-Qaeda boss. It disgraced and humiliated AQ in the eyes of the followers. It created an opportunity for new organizations to step in, and the result is Islamic State.
 
 
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Nate Dog    Granted   4/9/2015 2:42:07 AM
GWOT is a failure, and simply killing their best and brightest hasn't yielded the hoped for success.
I'll be honest Hari, i doubt that fuelling sectarian violence amongst Arab or Muslims was ever a foreign policy adopted by anyone.
The conflagration now certainly grew from a vacuum left by departing US troops in Iraq. But that's only as far as Iraq is concerned. Syria is an all together kettle of fish, US intervention never happened there and the violence is worse there than anywhere else. Revoloutions all over the M.E. grew naturally since 2011. Again, blaming US foreign policy for all Arabs woes is one sure way to ensure they are never resolved. 
You'll find they were caused by the same thing that always causes these things, over population, not enough resources, endemic poverty, not enough women to go around (the last one is the only islamic part of the problem, in such a scenario, where poverty is so wide spread and the wealth is so concentrated, polygamy is a very bad idea, reduces the pool of available women that much more, as the available women will naturally gravitate to those that can support them), couple with a very strict society where pre marital sex is liable to get you stoned to death by your own relatives =
 
An entire generation of unemployed, unemployable, sexually frustrated young men with no hope of any future whatsoever. Then we have the temerity to show them what the good life looks like, Movies, TV, internet, they can see it all but have no way of touching the good life. From there it doesn't take a scream to make such men take up arms and go get what they dont have, just a whisper will do.
Hence so much strife.
 
But if it makes you comfortable to blame US foreign policy for the worlds woes you go right ahead...
 
 
 
 
 
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Mikko       4/9/2015 4:17:47 AM
Good points Nate and well written. They need opportunities to shine with everything that is good in men, not in everything that is brutal and violent. 
 
It is an interesting observation that Syria, where US and allies decided not to intervene, is the biggest killing ground of them all. Of course there are multiple reasons to that but it is a fresh perspective to "US going in and messing things up". The western population and media are sometimes so incredibly short-sighted: you are damned if you do and damned if you don't. 
 
 
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jessmo_24       4/9/2015 5:26:45 AM
Maybe at this point we will end up in Syria. I mean how are your going to train moderate muslims to form a opposition, and then not support them over Syria? what happens when assad bombs them, or uses chem weapons on them?
Is this the bay of pigs agian? are we goign to train and equip these people to die? How will that play out in American foriegn policy? " Never trust the Americans, they sedn you out to die." And then part of me is like MAN PUTIN can bite me! Send the 3rd armored div into Iraq and all the way to the Syrian capital. Say what you want about Bush. but when he said somthing Russia, China and the Mid east feared him. Obama is feckless.
 
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trenchsol       4/9/2015 10:12:02 AM
GWOT was not only war in Iraq and Afghanistan. It also involved training, assistance and advice to countries with potential terrorism threat. A country where GWOT worked well is Bosnia. Radicals are contained and, pretty much, isolated into two small rural areas, often raided by police. Bosnian authorities worked with US for years. I suppose there are other countries involved, but Bosnia is a neighboring country and I am more familiar with it.
 
 
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Nate Dog    Jessmo   4/9/2015 8:17:36 PM
No,
No, i dont think so. I don't think we're likely to see any western forces end up in Syria, not for a very very long time. Syria is a prize no longer worth fighting for. Its a deadly sectarian hell hole that no sane person would get involved in. I fear Syria may never be a country again. Just a series of statelets being run by the most efficient warlord in his little enclave.
Lebanon is already a casualty of Syrian instability, it's border fights aren't with any one government, or one group of opposition, or terrorists, its with whoever is nearest, and happens to be the opposite sect to the particular village that its nearest.
 
 
 
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trenchsol       4/9/2015 11:06:04 PM
@Nate Dog
 
I happen to be a person who does not believe much in coincidences, which makes me a bit of conspiracy theory believer.
 
What you have described is an environment perfect for manipulation, and manipulation does happen indeed. Which makes me think that the environment is maintained deliberately.
 
I don't know much about Arab society, but it looks like that some countries are ruled by hereditary elites, i.e. families. Most important family in Saudi Arabia are Al Saud's, and the second most influential seem to be Bin Laden's. In Lebanon, politicians with same names are rotating for generations. In Europe hereditary elites have been stripped of power, and that change was reflected to America and Australia. Perhaps such transition never happened in Arab countries ? Perhaps the environment I mentioned above serves those elites well and it is being maintained by them ?
 
 
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