Allegedly Chinese support for North Korea has declined because they are not best pleased about North Korea helping the Syrians build nuclear reactors.

I think China told North Korea to give nuclear technology to Iran and Syria.

Actually, I think you'd find that most of China's FLANKER have always been stationed much closer to Beijing than they have to Taiwan, and in general closer to North Korea than to Taiwan.

 

US allowing China to have more influence in Korean peninsula?  I highly highly doubt that.  

Another interesting question is how Japan might feature in this?

I see Japan as standing back from becoming militarily involved in a Korean War unless the North launch missles against them.

IF Japan did become involved it would be interesting to see if that would alter Chinas stance.

Japan would be critical to US strategy in a second Korean War as a secure rear area. 

Even if gound fighting is confined to the DMZ area, you will not want to create big high value soft targets out of 747's full of troops flying directly into South Korea for the North Korean Air Force to shoot down.  Instead, the plan will be to fly into Japan, then a quick boat ride over to Korea, same as last time.

 

 The North Koreans know this, and, I believe,  have been going public with their nuclear warhead development and IRBM launches over Japan in an attempt to pressure the Japanese government into complete neutrality in event a future conflict.

"I see Japan as standing back from becoming militarily involved in a Korean War unless the North launch missles against them."

China (and probably therefore North Korea) will not start a war without a clearly defined long term strategy, which implies that they will expect a reward of something substantial. Therefore, China will not go to war with South Korea (only), too much downside. However, China will go to war IN the Korean peninsula to futher its larger objectives. If China goes to war in Korea it will be to engage the US as they know we will come to South Korea's aid. If they engage the US in the Korean peninsula, it will not be to win a war with the US only on the Korean peninsula, it will be to force the US to commit manpower and supplies to that theater. The same will then be true for the China/Taiwan theater...to engage the US and force us to commit manpower and supplies (and probably other areas...maybe central America). This will be with the ultimate goal of engaging us somewhere else for an effort at victory probably in conjunction with others of our enimies, like Russia. Of course, this is not plausible at current, but I would be willing to bet, if the US continues on its present course and Russia continues it comeback (due to its oil revenue) and China continues it military build up, I'd say they'd think they'd be ready in a decade perhaps.

Build up could be intimidation against N. Korea.  China might wan to t keep them on the chain.

 

Consider that every one involved in this story that has any freedom of action has a vested interest in letting N. Korea starve.  It is far cheaper to let them die under Kim than to help them.  Some day when enough of the wounded have been shot there might be a unification celebration.  (China would insist on keeping a hand in and the South

 

If the death train comes off the rails ahead of script then every one will need to talk turkey.  Because that could happen China wants to get in the game with some national assets.  They could be used in many ways.  One way could be a photo op of PLA crossing the rivers (against criminal resistants?) to function as a humanitarian force.  A police action if you will.  The big question there is how far south do they go.  They may feel that the 1950's division is still in effect and every thing above the old line including the N. Korean guns and fortification belts are theirs by right of the armistice.  Another map might have Chinese, Russian and ROK zones.  The lines should be agreed on before anyone moves but you can plan on some last second changes and bumping of ships and planes. China would like to trade threats and then pull back from the brink before missiles fly.   It would make they look like they wear big boy pants.  Look for "rouge" former N. Koren elements that kill some ROK/Americans and then get "moped up" by the PLA as trophies.   Also look for every out side power to agree that there is no race to anywhere and then be shocked that their forces are ahead of plan and reacting to local issues which require faster movement.

 

Or it could all be very different.

 

Then the American leader will make a statement about how he wished he had only know what was happening to the people like Bill Clinton after Rwanda.

 

 

 

 

The RoKs can do business with Moscow, maybe with Beijing, but they will not do business with BOTH at the  same time.

The DPRK is such a powder keg that the likeliest and safest course for everyone involved, is status quo as long as the diplomats can keep the fuse wet.

Knowing the Beijing Bandits, though, those cretins will find a way to light the fuse.

Herald