Could Germany and the Axis powers have Won the Second World War?

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ShallowThinker1 RE:Could Germany and the Axis powers have Won the Second World War? - Shooter 3/25/2005 5:19:17 PM

gf, Does Tsouras speculate about how this may have effected the outcome of the war? By D-Day, IMO for what little it's worth, Germany was finished - the Red Army would have eventually crushed them. The success of the invasion saved what became the FRG from falling to the Soviets, and maybe much more of contintental Europe, but a failure of the invasion probably wouldn't have salvaged the war for Germany.

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gf0012-aust - Shallowthinker1 3/25/2005 5:48:36 PM

If it had panned out as a "worst case" alternative scenario, he does indicate that Rommel could have ended up as Chancellor of a denazified Germany. In this instance, a worst case ending for D Day could actually have ended up as a "best case" to interrupt the evolution of the cold war. That just opens a further barrel of worms. ;)

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timon_phocas RE: - Germany and the Soviet Union 3/25/2005 7:11:42 PM

I think that Germnay and the Soviet Union were inevitable enemies. There was a report a few years back (using recently opened Soviet archives) that Stalin was preparing an attack on Germany in 1941. So Hitler's Barbarossa merely preempted Stalin's attack. the Soviets and the Western allies coordinated actions in June of 1944. German success against the Normandy landings would not have prevented the destruction of Army Group Center. Losses on the eastern front were crippling to the Germans. In the West formations could be defeated and scattered, but large portions of the troops would retreat back to Germany and be reformed into new units. On the Eastern Front the German formations were annihilated. The German army never recovered from June of 1944. The Germans would have been able to shift scores of divisions from the Atlantic to stabilize the Eastern Front. I've read that the Germans planned to shift 100 divisions if they defeated a Western invasion. They still would have lost Army Group Center, Belarus and the Ukraine.

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Commander RE:Erwin Rommel might have given Germany ultimate victory 3/25/2005 9:30:48 PM

ShallowThinker1, It is also a basic fact that it was Mussolini's and the Italian HQ that failed to act that caused Rommel his Afrika Korp. It is a fact that the Italians were what could be called no taste fo war. The Supply's could have been brought if Germany invaded Spain and rather than take it through the Med. The Germans will have to move supplies without going to the Med. And bringing Rommel his one time chance of "Ultimate Victory"

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ShallowThinker1 RE:Erwin Rommel might have given Germany ultimate victory 3/25/2005 10:24:40 PM

Commander, At the risk of seeming contrarian, I'm not convinced that taking Spain would have helped the German's situation in North Africa a great deal. Unless you include Gibraltar (possibly impregnable), taking Spain would have the advantage of allowing the Germans to resupply largely out of reach of the RN and RAF operating from Egypt. But that just converts the problem to one of a huge overland supply line on the ground in North Africa. Being able to resupply an enlarged Afrika Korp overland starts to really mess around with logistics to the point of, perhaps, absurdity in this "alternative history" sort of scenarion. It may not be a valid limitation on my part, but whenever I try to play these sorts of thought games I try to the "national industrial scale" kind of manipulations. For example, I don't believe things like, "Well, if the Germans had acclerated their sub development and retargetted a large portion of their industrial base to build 5 times as many subs of higher capability, they would have won the Battle of the Atlantic". Or, as another example, "If the Germans had developed a hi-capacity, four-engined bomber and deployed a thousand of them they would have annihilated Britain". I think of giving Rommel and extra one or two Panzer divisions and finding a way to resupply those adequately as reasonably minor shifts that could have been managed. With that much backing Rommel would have invested (at the least) Alexandria. Start making changes to give Rommel a legit army sized force and, IMO, we can start talking about Rommel capturing the oil fields of the Caucusus after eliminating the British from Egypt ;) All that said, we can never discount Ultra. There's a wildcard I just can't imagine how to play with. It is possible that, speaking hypothetically, had the Germans placed less faith in Enigma and kept advancing their code technology, the Allies might have gotten their clocks cleaned rather than winning the war.

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Commander RE:Erwin Rommel might have given Germany ultimate victory 3/26/2005 3:20:02 AM

ShallowThinker1, Well said ShallowThinker1, then what if the Germans make an alliance with Turkey, Syria and invade Palestine. Then the Germans will thrust forward and attack the British at their rear. But all I can say is the Germans cannot ignore Russia. I read an article in the internet which says that Stalin had plans for a massive invasion of Europe. Based on many sources also many Russians were willing to help the Germans if only Hitler allowed. And it could be if Rommel did not leave North Africa and gave Montgomery time to prepare he might have won. This is all I could think of now. Forgive the ignorance ShallowThinker1 but im only 13 yrs old. .

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ShallowThinker1 RE:Erwin Rommel might have given Germany ultimate victory 3/26/2005 11:18:01 AM

Commander, Thirteen! You're way ahead of the game then. Good for you. It seems that you have the useful habit of looking at maps. Location-wise your thinking seems sound. The problem, and it is always a problem, is how to get supplies to the operate from the excellent positioning the map suggests. The Germans faced a very difficult supply problem in the North African theater because the British Navy and air forces could operate out of Alexandria and Malta, had the entrance/exit for the Med choked off at Gibraltar, and had the naval power to resupply through the Suez. I don't claim for a moment that my thoughts on this are solid but, it seems to me, Malta was the key that the Germans couldn't or didn't break. Shipping, especially back then, was the only way to run large logistic efforts and without Malta (especially given the fact that the Brits had Ultra to break the Germans Enigma codes and knew virtually every move the Germans were making) the Germans had no secure shipping lanes across the Med. That really was the back-breaker for Rommel and the Afrika Korps. The Germans couldn't even resupply that small force. Double or triple the combat power of the Afrika Korp and Rommel would have really mopped the desert up with the Brits. But there was no way for them to supply a force that size. You're only thirteen so you may have not yet learned how important logistics are. There's an old saying you have probably heard regarding military stuff; amateurs think about strategy, professionals think about logistics. Not that I claim to be a professional, but I'm old enough to have learned that it isn't enough that you finally have a car - you need gas and tires and parts too ;). Its not enough to have a powerful force of troops, trucks, tanks, aircraft, etc. You need to be able to bring them food and fuel and ammo and water and spare parts and such.

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ShallowThinker1 RE:Could Germany and the Axis powers have Won the Second World War? 3/26/2005 11:41:25 AM

Commander, Here's a decent map of the Med: link Malta is that little dot just south of Sicily, over the "i" in "Meiditerranean". Between Alexandria, Malta, and Gibraltar the Brits were able to maintain naval control of the Med. If you look at the distances required to resupply North Africa or the "Palestine" area overland, without even condisidering the terrain and availability of roads it becomes pretty clear that it is a very daunting task. Shipping across the Med was the only option for the Germans and they never managed to secure their shipping lanes. Also have a look at the actions between June and December of 1940 listed here: link Rommel never had a chance under those conditions. It is amazing, really amazing, that he accomplished as much as he did with the Afrika Korps.

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Commander RE:Could Germany and the Axis powers have Won the Second World War? 3/26/2005 6:43:55 PM

ShallowThinker1, So your saying that Rommel never had a chance to win the war? I heard that today supplies are more complicated than in ancient times. In ancient times supplies consisted mainly on food, wood and metal. With the start of the age of gunpowder it became more complicated and with the invention of automobile it realy became complicated. The Germans could have won the war if the Adolf Hitler continued scientific research. In the 1940's Hitler put a ban on all weapons of research that were not finished the year. He was so overconfident of victory that scientist were turned to soldiers and when the first signs of defeat came he gathered all men working in advanced weaponry and continued their research. But when the research was done the war came to grinding end. I think the Germans could have won if they were just given enough time to make more of these secret weapons. An instance is the Battle of the Bulge if the Germans won that battle They could have slowed down the Allied advance and give enough time for the making of more jet fighters, V1 and V2 and the Atomic Bomb. If you want to talk more about Rommel meet me at Military History World War II North Africa this place is getting crowded. And sorry if I can't reply quick enough you see im at the other side of the timezone particullarly South East Asia

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ShallowThinker1 RE:Could Germany and the Axis powers have Won the Second World War? 3/26/2005 10:30:17 PM

Commander, "So your saying that Rommel never had a chance to win the war?" Rommel never had a legitimate chance to win in North Africa let alone the entire war. Rommel is a fascinating study in brilliant leadership conflicting with serious flaws and political and logistic realities. When he had his great victories he was operating against an army sized oponent who was reasonably resupplied with what was essentially an infantry corp reinforced with an light armored division. Later in the campaign he executed some of the most brilliant retreats and rearguard actions military history has ever seen. The Wehrmacht eventually threw a huge amount of effort into North Africa to try and salvage things but it was too late by then. But what might have happened? Operation Barbarossa was launched with something more than 100 German divisions of which, IIRC, fifteen or so were Panzer divisions and another 10 or so where mechanized infantry divisions. There was no military unit at the time of Barbarossa that was more powerful than a German Panzer division and the second most powerful military unit of the time was probably a German mechanized infantry division. Had the Germans outfitted Rommel with two legitimate Panzer divisions, a mechanized infantry division, and a two or three Wehrmacht infantry divisions, and somehow managed to sieze Malta so those units could be resupplied, the war may have gone very differently. This would have been a legitimate Wehrmacht Corps, perhaps even a small army. Montgomery would never have commanded in North Africa, the US would never have landed or if it did it would have met more than a brigade sized German resisting force, there would have been no invasion through the "soft underbelly", etc. Just opinions.

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