Most of the terrorist attacks in Iraq during the last week have been directed at Iraqis, not Americans. American bases are very well defended, so the terrorists are apparently going for more exposed targets, like police stations. But this shift in targets is also the start of another Middle Eastern civil war. Lebanon was torn apart by civil war from 1975 to 1990. Only exhaustion and a sense of futility stopped the fighting between Lebanese Christians and several different Islamic sects. Yemen was torn by civil war through most of the 1960s and Algeria is still smoldering after a decade of civil strife. Sudan's civil war is well into its second decade. You want terrorism? Then come to the Middle East. Jordan has had bouts of Palestinian and Islamic radical violence. Syria also has had run ins with Islamic fundamentalists, but put them down with great brutality. Syrian fundamentalists have either fled, or kept their heads down when at home.
But the current terrorist bombing campaign looks familiar. When the Egyptian Moslem Brotherhood used similar bombing tactics during the late 1980s and early 1990s, so many civilians were killed that the Brotherhood lost a lot of their popular support. The Brotherhood was fighting to establish an Islamic republic and, more importantly, eliminate the very unpopular government corruption. But the civilian deaths led to more civilians cooperating with the government, and most of the Brotherhood activists were soon arrested or on the run. By the mid 1990s, the Moslem Brotherhood, at least the militant wing, was destroyed in Egypt, with many of those not arrested having fled overseas to join Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda organization.
Iraq, however, is s slightly different situation. The resistance in Iraq is led by Sunni Arabs (led by the Baath Party) who want to regain control of the country. Working with this group are Islamic radicals (al Qaeda and local religious zealots), who would normally be fighting the Baath Party. Al Qaeda wants to see an Islamic republic in Iraq, something few Iraqis care for. Thus the main resistance in Iraq has an ethnic minority (the 20 percent of the population that is Sunni Arab) as a base of support. While popular revulsion to terrorist attacks may lead to al Qaeda activists (who are nearly all non-Iraqis and easy to spot) being driven out, the Sunni Arabs don't plan on going anywhere.
What's developing is a civil war, similar to what went on in Lebanon from 1975-90. There, Islamic radicals (mostly Shias) were the first Middle Eastern users of suicide bombers. These attacks were mainly against their political enemies (mostly Arab Christians, but also Sunni and Druze Arabs.) The civil war in Iraq will probably be more vicious than the one in Lebanon, where the main grievance was over how much national power each religious faction should have. In Iraq, the Sunni Arabs want it all, and for centuries have maintained their power over the Shia Arab and Kurd majority with savage repressions. Until 1918, the Sunnis did the dirty work in the name of their Turkish overlords. But for the past seventy years, the Sunni Arabs have become increasingly brutal, as their victims frequently resisted. But the last few decades of Sunni Arab rule were particularly nasty, and the Shia and Kurds will not be gentle in dealing with Sunni Arab violence. In some Sunni Arab areas, the locals are becoming aware that American troops are actually protecting them from the wrath of Shias and Kurds seeking vengeance.
But the Americans will be withdrawing as soon as there has been a democratic election. This will establish a government run by Shia Arabs and Kurds. Many Sunni Arabs are willing to fight to the death to prevent this from happening. And their foe in this war is not foreigners, but the Shia and Kurd policemen who are restoring order in the country.
While the Sunni Arabs are outnumbered four to one, they have a disproportionate share of the trained military manpower and cash. Sunni Arabs have long controlled the military and commerce in the area. Government and academic jobs have also been disproportionately Sunni Arab. Quality has a quantity all its own, and the Sunni Arabs have never let being outnumbered keep them from power.
Iraq's neighbors are well aware of the Sunni Arab problem, and longed counseled tolerance for Saddam, or his successor, as they believed that democracy in Iraq would just lead to a bloody civil war. Middle Eastern nations have long settled political disputes on the battlefield, and have little experience with using a ballot box instead. Most people in the region do not see the Sunni Arabs of Iraq meekly accepting their minority status. It's also felt that that Shia Arabs and Kurds will not treat the Sunni Arabs gently, or fairly. While most Americans are unfamiliar with the hatred most Iraqis feel for Sunni Arabs, these strong emotions play a major role in Iraqi politics. The Lebanese civil war was no surprise to anyone familiar with the long term religious tensions in that country. Similar antagonisms exist in Iraq, and have for a long time. The coalition has put the Shia and Kurds in a position to run the place, and the first order of business will be to make sure the Sunni Arabs don't bully their way to power again. It's not a question of what the Sunni Arabs will do about it, they are already acting. The Sunni Arabs have started the Iraqi Civil War, and when American troops withdraw, it will be Iraqi Shias and Kurds who will finish it, one way or another.
