The devastating earthquake that struck northern Pakistan, and nearby regions
of Afghanistan and India recently, may have an important effect on the Islamic
underground in that country, and its tentacles into Afghanistan and the Indian
area of Kashmir. Reportedly, some Islamic base camps in remote areas were
heavily damaged, which might led to a lessening of radical support for the
insurgencies in Afghanistan and Kashmir, particularly as large numbers of
Pakistani troops ? two full divisions from Peshawar -- have flooded into the
affected region. While these troops will be focused on humanitarian relief
operations, their very presence is likely to have a deterrent effect on Islamic
radicals or their tribal supporters, which may ease some of the resistance
faced by Pakistani forces already committed to anti-terrorist operations along
the Afghan frontier, to the southwest of the most heavily devastated area.
In addition to helping the war on terror, the prompt response of the
Pakistani government and the international community, including India, could
greatly strengthen the position of president Pervez Musharraf, already on a
roll since recent local elections produced a substantial improvement in
political support for his government.
But there is also a danger here. Corruption is a way of life in Pakistan, and
if relief funds and supplies are mismanaged or even siphoned off by venal
officials, a serious backlash could occur. In the aftermath of the devastating
1972 earthquake that leveled Managua, the capitol of Nicaragua, an enormous
outpouring of international assistance largely disappeared into the pockets of
Dictator Anastasio Somoza and his henchmen, a development that led directly to
a significant increase in poplar support for what had been a largely
ineffective insurgency by the Marxist Sandinista movement. 