Al Qaeda?s man in Iraq, Abu Musab al Zarqawi, appears to be headed for a
falling-out with his nominal boss, Osama bin Ladin. Although bin Laden is
anti-Shia, he has been careful not to antagonize Iran, the largest Shia
nation in the world, too much. There were practical reasons for this, as
Iran is the only ?Islamic Republic? on the planet, and has plenty of oil. Iran
and al Qaeda both want to see the United States, Israel, and the West in
general, destroyed. Bin Laden has long had a hard time keeping Iran friendly
towards al Qaeda. That?s because the Islamic conservatives, who are the core of
al Qaeda support, believe that Shia Moslems are heretics, and should be forced,
under threat of death, to practice the mainline Sunni form of Islam. But at
least bin Laden tried. Zarqawi is another matter.
Zarqawi?s refocusing of operations in Iraq against Shia civilians, particularly
during the holy month of Ramadan (October), may antagonize Iran so much that it
decides to support, at least covertly, American efforts against al Qaeda in
Iraq. This would, in turn, give the U.S. (and the Shia) a major victory over
the Sunni-led al Qaeda Jihad. At the moment, Iran is caught between a rock and
a hard place. While Iran backs Islamic radicals, it also portrays itself as the
defender of Shia Moslems. When the Taliban and al Qaeda were running
Afghanistan, Iran was quite hostile to the atrocious treatment given to Afghan
Shia. But once the Taliban were out of power, some Iranian Islamic hardliners
were willing to help al Qaeda members get away from Afghans and Americans
pursuing them.
Iraqi Shia leaders are already quietly pressuring Iran for some help against
Zarqawi?s murderous al Qaeda terrorists. If Iran doesn?t do something, these
complaints could turn public, which would be very embarrassing for Iranian
Islamic conservatives.
