The Iraqi Threat
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14-Iraq’s conventional military capability has been considerably degraded since the Gulf
war. Part of the drive to build larger WMD stockpiles is to make up for this depletion in
military capability. Iraq now has practically no airforce, a much degraded air defense
system and practically no new tanks, heavy artillery or armored vehicles. What is left
functioning from the Gulf war arsenal is basically in the hands of the Special Republican
Guards and the rest of armed forces are basically armed with light weaponry. With a
highly corrupt officers corps the Iraqi army suffers from a large number of absenteeism,
poor or nonexistent medical care, pilfered rations and little or no pay to the conscripts.
Pay and rations are usually split among the officers and party members. It is estimated
that Iraq has no more than a quarter of the firepower it possessed at the onset of the Gulf
war. With the original Baath party members mostly murdered or in jail, Saddam’s
government now is purely a personal dictatorship of Saddam and his clan. The original
rhetoric of the Baath party no longer carry any weight with the population. Thus the army
that surrendered to the American forces in droves in Gulf war is now in an even worse
shape and would regard an American invasion as a welcome liberation army. American
inspectors and media personnel who visited Iraq were surprised by the friendliness and
lack of rancor of the population toward Americans. This is in contrast to the image of the
Americans as evildoers that Saddam was trying to project in all his speeches.
15- Iraq’s WMD are under the control of the Special Security Organization (SSO). This
is the same group that are charged with Saddam’s Security. This feared and ruthless
organization is mainly composed of conscripts from Saddam’s hometown and very loyal
tribes in adjacent areas. They have an observer in all major military meetings and they are
present at the headquarters of all division commanders and they report directly to
Saddam’s younger son Qussey. Any operation to disrupt the central authority of the Iraqi
command structure and specially the handling and deployment of weapons of mass
destruction must target this organization. Precision bombing and strict enforcement of a
no drive zones should eliminate most of if not all the dangers of Saddam possibly using
his CBW. Past defections from this pampered group indicate that it is not as tightly
controlled as was earlier thought and defection rate may increase considerably when
faced with an imminent invasion.
16- Iraq is now in one of the lowest points in its history. Saddam managed to destroy its
middle class and its hope in a viable future. Millions of Iraqis are believed to have left the
country since the Gulf war taking with them most of its professional class. With no future
to look forward to Iraqis will welcome an American invasion with open arms. With a
long history in government and a large bureaucracy it will not revert to the situation in
Afghanistan now. The Kurds promised to rejoin the rest of Iraq under a coalition
government. And above all if a democracy is established and nurtured in Iraq it will be a
turning point in the region’s history.
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