5- Iraq realized that CBWs are more instruments of terror than they are of war. A real
deterrence is the nuclear weapon option. Realising that a few nuclear weapons are not a
serious deterrence because of the need for testing, it configured its program to generate
its own materials for the nuclear core. Thus the plan that was set in 1982 targeted a 100
kg (220 lb) of bomb grade uranium a year. This is equivalent to 6 implosion or two gun
type bombs a year. With a worked out design for the implosion option Iraq planned on
being a major power in the region through its nuclear arsenal. Thus under this program
Iraq was not much interested in purchasing the materials needed for the nuclear core
through its extensive black market network. However under threat the situation did
change. After the invasion of Kuwait Iraq embarked on a crash program to make one
nuclear bomb using the French supplied fuel at its disposal. This option, now declared by
the Iraqi government was dropped only after it was made clear that the uranium
extraction capabilities were not good enough to achieve enough materials for one bomb.
Recent defections indicate that Iraq is seeking actively all kinds of nuclear materials. It is
also active in seeking the needed components to accelerate its uranium enrichment
program.
6-With the a workable design and most of the needed components for a nuclear weapon
already tested and in working order, Iraq is in the final stages of putting together its
enrichment program to enrich enough uranium for the final component needed in the
nuclear core. Thus Iraq’s nuclear achievement when it happens, together with its history
of use of its available WMD will turn it into a serious threat to US interests in the region.
Serious punishment (regime change) will be largely discounted. Iraq’s posturing,
aggressiveness and harassment of unfriendly regimes will increase considerably. The
window of opportunity to abort this option before it happen is closing down possibly
within the next two to three years, after that a change of regime will be a much costlier
prospect.
