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Rafale Finally Does It

September 9, 2009: After a decade of effort, France finally has an export customer for its Rafale jet fighter. Brazil will buy 36 of them, for over $4 billion. The Rafale is more (in terms of performance and cost) than Brazil needs, but France prepared the way with a multi-billion dollar submarine and technology transfer deal. This included assistance in designing and building nuclear submarines. That also includes four non-nuclear, 1,400 ton Scorpene subs, three of them built in Brazil, with French technical assistance. This would be part of the process by which Brazil would also build its first nuclear sub, based on the 4,700 ton French Barracuda.

France has had nothing but hard times trying to find export customers for its Rafale. Earlier this year, the production rate the Rafale was reduced from 14 a year to 11 a year. This was to  slow down the delivery of Rafales, mainly because the Defense Ministry has decided that other things were more important. The new emphasis (and spending) is on peacekeeping and anti-missile defenses. Another reason for slowing down Rafale production was the lack of export orders. That will probably change, eventually. Brazil and Dassault (Rafale's manufacturer) do not expect to nail down the final contract until next year. So, technically, France has not made its first Rafale export sale yet. But they have never been this close. For French defense officials, that's close enough to party a little.

Late last year, France ordered another 60 Rafale jet fighters, and these will be delivered over the next six years. Officially, France plans to buy 294, and 60 have been delivered so far. Three years ago, the French Air Force activated its first squadron of Rafale fighters. The navy had received ten navalized Rafales three years before that, for service on the nuclear aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle. The first prototype of Rafale was shown in 1986, and the aircraft should have entered service in the late 1990s.

While one of the more modern combat aircraft in the world, development of the Rafale was delayed by technical problems, and shortages of money. Entering development just as the Cold War ended meant that there was little enthusiasm to spend billions on an aircraft that would face no real opposition. But, facing the need to eventually replace all those Mirage fighters, development did get restarted, creating an aircraft superior to the American F-15s and F-16s, very similar to the F-18F, but inferior to the F-22 and F-35.

The Eurofighter, and several other very competitive aircraft have made export sales scarce. By 2006, the French armed forces had only ordered 120 Rafales (82 for the air force, 38 for the navy). The 28 ton aircraft sell for about $100 million each, and it is hoped the Brazil sale will spur other nations to take a chance on France.

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SAE       9/9/2009 10:08:31 AM
The Rafale was the product of France's refusal to join the Eurofighter project and to go it alone. This created two competing European fighters for which there is not a big enough market, either domestically or globaly. Thus one or both had to be the loser. It turns out it was the French Rafale. This probably means the end of future fighter development in France. Expect France to either be part of the next Eurofighter development or maybe they will buy American next time.
 
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Basilisk Station       9/9/2009 11:30:20 AM
I'm surprised BW or FS wasn't the first one in here bragging.
 
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Phaid       9/9/2009 11:36:48 AM
Let's not go popping the champagne corks just yet...
 
 
SEPTEMBER 9, 2009, 9:07 A.M. ET

Brazil's Defense Ministry Says Fighter Jet Tender Still Open

 SAO PAULO (Dow Jones)--Brazil's Defense Ministry late Tuesday issued a statement saying it still has not chosen between French, U.S. and Swedish options for its new fighter jet force.

The Defense Ministry's release contradicts Foreign Affairs Minister Celso Amorim, who said Monday that Brazil had opted for the French Rafale jet and was in negotiations with Dassault Aviation SA (AM.FR) to buy 36 of the aircraft.

"The selection process for the FX-2 (fighter) project, conducted by air force high command, has not been completed and negotiations continue with three participants," said the statement signed by Defense Minister Nelson Jobim.

The government appears to be backtracking as, apart from Amorim's comments, the French and Brazilian government issued a joint statement Sunday that indicated Brazil was negotiating exclusively with Dassault.

Dassault is competing with Boeing Co. (BA) and Saab (SAAB-B.SK) of Sweden for the contract, which could be worth up to $10 billion.

According to the Defense Ministry, during an official visit led by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, the French government committed to offering the Rafale jets to Brazil at competitive prices comparable to those paid by the French armed forces. The French government also expressed interest in purchasing KC-390 military cargo jets from Brazilian planemaker Embraer (ERJ), the statement added.
 
 
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LB    Superior to F-15   9/9/2009 3:39:57 PM
The article states the Rafale is superior to the F-15.  It's a statement without meaning and is in fact misleading.  I'm sure there are specific missions and profiles where the Rafale would be better; however, the F-15 has been flying with AESA for years now and it's not clear to me how the Rafale is "superior" to an F-15 air to air much less air to ground.  It's in fact a silly comparison to make given the two aircraft are different classes in terms of size and weight.  
 
Brazil also operates the ex French carrier Foch now the Sao Paulo.  Maybe if Brazil is happy with the Rafale they might one day replace the navies A4's as well.   The thing is Brazil has not been able to afford to operate the Sao Paulo lately so it's curious they can find money for an SSN program as well as picking the most expensive fighter under consideration for the air force.  Hopefully for Brazil they end up getting their money's worth- if they actually do sign that contract.
 
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Phaid       9/9/2009 5:43:47 PM
The discussions are apparently pretty far from over.  Some points from a piece in the Brazilian press about an interview with Defense Minister Nelson Jobim concerning the negotiations:
 
The announcement was basically predicated on promises that Sarkozy made.  Many of the things that the deal would truly hinge on were simply based on assurances Sarkozy made which are far from assured.  These included:
 
- Technology transfer.  This is complicated by the fact that Dassault is not 100% French.  Sarkozy pledged to handle this but the Brazilians still have some doubts.
 
- Aircraft price.  Sarkozy pledged that Dassault would offer the aircraft at the same price as it does the French armed forces, possibly backed by a French government subsidy if Dassault cannot fully accommodate this.  Neither the French government nor Dassault has signed or agreed to anything in this regard.
 
- Establishing a market for Brazilian-built Rafales.  Sarkozy promised that he could bring Dassault to give Brazil exclusive marketing rights for the Rafale in South America.  This however has not been agreed to by Dassault.
 
- Cost of maintenance and number of maintenance hours per flight hour.  The Brazilians expressed doubts about this, and Sarkozy pledged that Dassault would offer a fixed maintenance cost per flight hour, with Dassault paying the difference if costs rose above that ceiling.
 
Lula's announcement was based on the agreements reached in the discussions with Sarkozy.  But this was only the first step.  After Lula made the announcement that Brazil and France were entering into an agreement, Defense Minister Jobim reminded the President that the agreements must still be legally formalized, and that the promises made by the French government must be agreed to by Dassault.  The next step will be to receive a formal offer from the French, as well as the offers of the other two bidders.  The Brazilian Air Force will then evaluate all three offers, with the possibility of further counteroffers.
 
So, basically, none of the French promises are really concrete at all, and neither Dassault, SAAB, nor Boeing have made their Best And Final Offers.  So the announcement was really premature, and we've seen what happens in the past when the French government makes promises on Dassault's behalf.
 
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blkfoot       9/9/2009 8:32:12 PM
"Brazil also operates the ex French carrier Foch now the Sao Paulo.  Maybe if Brazil is happy with the Rafale they might one day replace the navies A4's as well.   The thing is Brazil has not been able to afford to operate the Sao Paulo lately so it's curious they can find money for an SSN program as well as picking the most expensive fighter under consideration for the air force."
 
Or, maybe Brazil will wake up and rethink this whole thing...who is our advassaries that we need this expensive technology to fight against, what is their strengths and weaknesses, what are our other more affordable options, can this all be just settled with a week long Footbol tounament instead?...the process is still in...well, process....
 
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RtWingCon    cost?   9/10/2009 1:04:33 AM

"The 28 ton aircraft sell for about $100 million each, and it is hoped the Brazil sale will spur other nations to take a chance on France."
 
Enjoyed the points made by all, my question, is the Rafale really $100 mil each? Judging from all the negative comments made about the plane it would seem too high to take a chance on. The first analogy I can think of is buying a HD-DVD recorder today at full price vs. the industry standard Blu-Ray. WHy would you do it?
What does make sense is the comments made previously that France may subsidize to meet the price point and the reciprocity purchase of mil cargo aircraft from Brazil. Or, simply the Brazilians are making the French sweat for better terms.
 
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Alexis       9/10/2009 7:59:53 AM

Let's not go popping the champagne corks just yet...
 SAO PAULO (Dow Jones)--Brazil's Defense Ministry late Tuesday issued a statement saying it still has not chosen between French, U.S. and Swedish options for its new fighter jet force.
The Defense Ministry's release contradicts Foreign Affairs Minister Celso Amorim, who said Monday that Brazil had opted for the French Rafale jet and was in negotiations with Dassault Aviation SA (AM.FR) to buy 36 of the aircraft. "The selection process for the FX-2 (fighter) project, conducted by air force high command, has not been completed and negotiations continue with three participants," said the statement signed by Defense Minister Nelson Jobim.

 
Indeed, this deal will be settled when the contract is signed, and not one minute before. What can be said is simply that this deal looks favorably oriented, with the Brazilian president saying that the choice has been done. Until the contract is signed, the competition will continue doing its utmost to derail it.
 
Regarding the Defense Minister' comments, they could mean everything from a simple juridical statement necessary to uphold Brazil's legal obligations until the end of the tender in October (therefore of no practical consequence) to a disagreement at the head of Brazil's government serious enough for the Defense Minister to contradict the President in front of the media (and expecting to keep his place!)
 
That deal would make a lot of sense since Brazil wants to develop its weapon technology base in a long term framework, and France is obviously the country most ready to offer wide-ranging technology sharing.
 
But time will tell.
 
 
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doggtag       9/10/2009 9:19:27 AM

The article states the Rafale is superior to the F-15.  It's a statement without meaning and is in fact misleading.  I'm sure there are specific missions and profiles where the Rafale would be better; however, the F-15 has....

What needs to be considered is,
the Rafale was seen as superior to the F-15 as far as Brazil's concerns for what it needs in a multirole aircraft.
 
Yeah, maybe it doesn't say that verbatim (don't really know, I don't make a habit of reading all the local Brazilian papers in Portuguese or whichever local tongue they prefer).
But considering the desireable traits Brazil is in the market for don't require F-15-Whatevers,
what does it matter that, to US standards, Brazil chose an overall less-capable aircraft?
F-15s are far more expensive, be it procuring them to begin with, to train pilots on them, to maintain them, and to buy more fuel for two much thristier engines.
Yeah, one can argue that F-15 this is superior in all these ways to Rafale that, but Brazil's requirements aren't asking for F-15s, especially considering all the more they could equip with for the same price they're willing to commit on this modernization (something which, judging by past fighter programs, Brazil could renegotiate at a future point to less-than-desireable demands (cuts in numbers and funding) that a US company just doesn't want to have to contend with the hassle).
(Do we suggest the argument, "Well if they had some F-15s, they wouldn't need such a large air force!" ?)
 
If Brazil wanted capabilities that the F-15 offered, they would've shortlisted that aircraft earlier in the competition.
 
They didn't.
 
Therefore, as far Brazil's concerns, the Rafale was the superior choice.
(Notice though that lately, Boeing still insists it isn't down for the count...for all intents and purposes, the F-15E/K/ST are superior to F/A-18E/F series (or at least can be modernized to be so), yet Brazil still shortlisted Super Hornets in the competition, not Eagles.)
 
We can't gauge their decisions to be wrong just because they don't make the same judgment calls and decisions the US does.
Brazil doesn't feel it needs what Eagles offered (especially the pricetag).
Besides, what are we so worried about if they buy Rafales, anyway?
Afraid we might get shown up that our intel wasn't 100% on the mark as far as what Rafale is really capable of?
Why should we even be afraid of such a thing anyway, are we secretly planning war with Brazil and fear going against MICA-equipped Rafales?
 
Seriously, why is the US all tiffy about anyone buying Rafales at all, if it's supposed to be such a non-contender versus anything the US has?
Because we lost the sale to begin with?
If that's the only real legitmate bitch, then maybe that's a wake up call that more US defense contractors need to actually start offering their wares on what the customer' terms are,
and not trying to tell the customer why their requirements are wrong and that they'd be better off buying US kit and a god-awfully expensive tech support package that goes along with it.
 
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LB    Read the Article   9/10/2009 4:42:45 PM
My comment about F-15 vs Rafale is from the article which states the Rafale is "superior" to the F-15 in all contexts.  There is no question Brazil did not want an F-15 for a variety of reasons including, one would assume, higher operating costs.
 
Note the article states the Rafale is "very similar to the F-18F" but is "superior" to the F-15.  This is a fact check black hole.  Firstly F-18E/F should be written.  Secondly, it's not clear to me that an F-15 with an AESA radar is inferior to an F-18E/F air to air (specific missions and profiles aside).  Moreover, while there may be various strike missions the F-18E/F performs better than an F-15E it's simply ridiculous to imply the F-15E is not, even now, a superior strike aircraft overall.  Part of the issue of course is that the F-15 is in a different class than the Rafale and F-18E/F and thus comparing these aircraft is problematic in the first place.  It's akin to saying the F-16A was better than the F-4E.  There's a long list of things better on a Ford Focus but it's not "superior" to a 1972 911.
 
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Chitresh Verma    India should buy rafale   9/11/2009 4:35:08 AM
India should also ask for  assistance in designing and building  nuclear aircraft carrier like they have deal with  Brazil case for N-Sub.And buy Rafale fighter along with TOT.
 
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cwDeici       9/11/2009 8:31:50 AM
Hey Alexis, did you come over from defense forum/page something? :)
 
Anyway, I hope it doesn't make a sale... for a selfish reason (other than liking Brazilians) - the world won't quite feel the same anymore when the first major duel-seater jet fighter aircraft of the modern era available for export makes it (to top it off with cream it's so geared for it too ;)).
 
It's like... the day the myth died. I don't want it to happen, glad it's not finalized.
 
The myth of unsellable 'super' plane.
 
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cwDeici       9/11/2009 8:39:37 AM

India should also ask for  assistance in designing and building  nuclear aircraft carrier like they have deal with  Brazil case for N-Sub.And buy Rafale fighter along with TOT.


Just... buy American ok.
 
It all works out when the hacking is done.
Go ask the Iraqis.
 
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cwDeici       9/11/2009 8:40:52 AM
They just threw the Nuclear deal despite the NPA at ya (though u behave sooo much better than a certain other state so, ok... but), I mean.... The Americans are competent suckers.
 
The French are cunning, and only sometimes competent.
 
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cwDeici       9/11/2009 10:06:16 AM



"The 28 ton aircraft sell for about $100 million each, and it is hoped the Brazil sale will spur other nations to take a chance on France."
 

Enjoyed the points made by all, my question, is the Rafale really $100 mil each? Judging from all the negative comments made about the plane it would seem too high to take a chance on. The first analogy I can think of is buying a HD-DVD recorder today at full price vs. the industry standard Blu-Ray. WHy would you do it?

What does make sense is the comments made previously that France may subsidize to meet the price point and the reciprocity purchase of mil cargo aircraft from Brazil. Or, simply the Brazilians are making the French sweat for better terms.



A solid, even convincing argument could be made for the HD-DVD being more cost efficient (and even effective in the short to mid-long term) than the Blu-Ray, until marketing deals and image won the day... no anologue exists for this between the Rafale and its immediate contemporaries - the Gripen, Eurofighter, and Legacy US fighters.
 
The Rafale is a vastly overpriced, underperforming, unproperly supplied aircraft with an errant research bent.
 
It is a modest yet above average bomb TRUCK. Do not bring to combat resistance without heavy support.
 
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