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Tall Tales And The 10,000

NUCLEAR, BIOLOGICAL AND CHEMICAL WEAPONS

June 3, 2009: Pakistan, in response to criticism that its nuclear weapons are vulnerable to terrorist attack, reported that it had 10,000 security personnel safeguarding its 60 nuclear warheads,  and nuclear weapons production facilities. The U.S. has worked quietly with the Pakistani government, to improve the security of these nuclear weapons. The Pakistanis are not only concerned with Indian agents harming their nukes, but also the rather more remote possibility of criminals flitching components, or entire bombs, for sale on the international arms market. Several Islamic radical groups have standing offers of big bucks for functioning nuclear weapons.

Islamic radicals, and most Moslems, consider Pakistan's nuclear weapons to be the "Islamic nukes," since Pakistan is the only Islamic nation to build nuclear weapons so far. Islamic terrorists openly talk about how they would eagerly use a nuclear weapon in a terror attack. Most Moslems realize this could have grave consequences for the Islamic world (as in a nuclear retaliation), so most Pakistanis want their nukes kept secure. But the rampant corruption makes it easier to penetrate any security system. Add to the mix a more volatile political situation, and you have some risk of loose nukes.

The U.S. has few good options here. The main option is to stay close to the government and remain helpful with nuclear security advice. Meanwhile, the media runs alarmist stories of other options. Like a commando raid to spirit the nukes out of the country, which only works in the movies. An air strike to destroy them would leave highly radioactive wreckage, and make many enemies for the U.S. in Pakistan. A deal to insert U.S. security personnel might work, given the highly mobile American forces just across the border in Afghanistan, and off the coast on amphibious ships. There some planning going on for all these options, but there is no sure cure for this situation.

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Mace       6/3/2009 9:31:33 AM
I figure that the thing to do is to make a deal with the Pakistani government such that we know where all of their nuclear stuff is, but we won't touch it and will help them keep it secure as long as they remain in power and behave themselves. If the current government ever falls, then we destroy them by precision bombing or commando raids or whatever.
 
From their perspective, they probably don't mind getting security help from us and being an "official" member of the nuclear club. And if their government ever falls to Islamist radicals, hopefully they'd rather see us destroy the nukes by precision bombing than let the radicals use them against our interests and watch us make a saturation strike against their whole country in retaliation.
 
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Headlock       6/3/2009 12:45:34 PM
Hmmmm...plausable, but not probable. Or even possible, politically.

Youre looking at it through too much of a western filter  (JFTR, this is not a personal attack).You're suggesting that the US basically control, through knowladge of locations and its strike capability, the Paksitani nuclear deterrant, just in case the Pakistani government looses control.. 

But looked at it through a Pakistani filter this raises several questions:
1. What is the point of a nuclear deterrant if another country, no matter how friendly they are right now, is given the capability to nullify that threat through conventional means?
2. What if the US ends up drifting away from Palistan and becoming close enough to say India, (or heckit, Iran), and still has possession of the locations of those nukes? Moving ICBMs is a massive job....
3. Who decides if the Paksitani government is losing control? The US? If so, then the US not only would have control over not only Pakistans nuclear deterrant, but also over the form, nature and orientation of the Government? I mean, if you cant even guarantee that you can use your own nukes then how credible can you be as a politcal entity? What if the US becomes overly hostile to a democratically elected moderate Islamic government (such as exists right now) and threatens stikes on the nuke arsenal unless there is a change of government?
4. What if Pakistan/India actually go to war again, US is mainly on India's side (lets say), and Pakistan suffers a limited Indian nuke attack? Pakistan wants to Nuke back, but US 1) provides locactions to India of ICBM sites for premptive strikes, or 2) launches limited attacks of its own?

Basically, giving away information of this sort, crtical to Pakistani credibility both externally and internally, would be naive self-blackmail of the most foolish kind, no? 

I'm interested in other analysis, views, thought out rebuttals. No hostile flame wars thanks, there seems to be a bit of that juvenile crap going around lately.

HDK 

 


 
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doggone       6/4/2009 1:51:43 AM
" had 10,000 security personnel safeguarding its 60 nuclear warheads " :   To Niccolò di Bernardo dei Machiavelli students, that means. 10,000 security personnel safeguarding its 20 nuclear warheads.
 
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utopia       6/4/2009 4:00:13 AM
No country will ever make a deal with another country that could undermine its security deterrent. We live in a world devoid of any permanenet friends ------- reality check-----countries are governed by their national interest. How can Pakistan ever consider to share and seek any assisstance from U.S regarding its nuclear weapons.
 
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cwDeici       6/5/2009 4:09:14 AM
Interesting how they've set extra troops up to block advances towards these installations when they were secure enough in the first place according to the GoP.
 
Then again they lie, cheat, steal, wheedle, interfere, backstab, genocide, etc.
The Taliban news reports are more reliable than theirs.
 
But for all it's worth, their nukes are mostly safe... for now.
 
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