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Artillery: The Chinese Plan To Crush American Power In Korea
   Next Article → NBC WEAPONS: Why Germany Won't Give Up Its Nukes
November 15, 2010: U.S. military planners have discovered that China's current arsenal of non-nuclear ballistic and cruise missiles could probably knock out five of six major American air bases in Japanese and South Korea. Oops. To make matters worse, this has become an issue as North Korea stumbles towards political collapse, and China indicates that it will assume control in the north if that happens. South Korea believes it should move north to deal with a collapse, and this plan is becoming a contentious issue with China.

It's long been obvious that China planned a similar tactic against Taiwan. Wargames and detailed analysis of possible Chinese attacks on Taiwan, indicated that the basic Chinese missile attack strategy might work, and do so within days. The key to such a blitz is the 1,300 Chinese ballistic and cruise missiles. Most of these are based on the coast opposite Taiwan (180 kilometers away across the Taiwan Straits). The Chinese missiles carry one ton or half ton conventional (high explosive or cluster bomb) warheads, and were expected to be used to try and cripple Taiwanese air force and navy, as well as attacking headquarters and communications targets. Almost simultaneously, China would try to invade with airborne and amphibious forces.

Without those missiles, Taiwans's superior air and naval forces would make it very difficult, if not impossible, for the invasion force to cross the straits. The wargames play out various targeting strategies, and defensive moves the Taiwanese could take. In most cases, the Chinese succeed. The barrage of missiles do serious damage to Taiwanese air and naval forces, giving Chinese air and naval forces an opportunity to get ground forces ashore.

China could use many of these missiles against Japanese and South Korean targets, although many of the missiles would have to be moved to new firing positions first. That would probably be noticed by the Americans, or Taiwanese. If North Korea showed signs of political collapse, and China began moving its shorter range ballistic missiles north, American commanders would have to prepare for the worst.

The U.S. has land based Patriot missile systems that fire the PAC-3 anti-missile missile, as well as the ship based Aegis system. But even with these defenses, the Chinese still have a good shot at winning a quick victory. Or at least crippling American and South Korean air power as Chinese troops occupy North Korea.

 

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JFKY    Well sure   11/15/2010 10:17:37 AM
The PRC will just attack US/Korean/Japanese bases in order to occupy North Korea, I mean that makes oodles of sense..."lets just start a war with 40% of the World's GDP and our two most powerful neighbors."  I'm really seeing the PRC doing that for North Korea...
 
How about this North Korea collapses, S. Korea moves north, and as a cost of unification the Unified Korea is "Neutral" ending any status of forces agreement with the US and ending US basing rights?  The PRC neutralizes an US ally and gets a less threatening neighbor on its border.
 
But if people want to posit an aggressive PRC "Bandit" response feel free....
 
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LEfie3       11/15/2010 12:23:53 PM
@JFKY, tell that to Chinese leaders.  This is not conspiracy paranoia, in regards to occupying North Korea it is official Chinese policy.  And if you are looking for literature regarding ballistic missile strikes on US bases there are tons and tons of it in Chinese military literature.  All of this is posted on the net, you just have to be able to read Chinese. 
 
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YelliChink       11/15/2010 12:29:46 PM

But if people want to posit an aggressive PRC "Bandit" response feel free....

Commies are bandits with a red banner anyway, and they did engage in the Korean War when every odd was against them.
Commies build those missiles mostly to intimidate us Taiwans, but it is well known in Chinese circle that the missile force is also a deterrent to Japanese and Americans. In that scenario, those will not just be conventional warheads. Chances are they aren't that crazy unless their commie "core interests" are at jeopardy, and not even Taiwan is their core interests.

On the other hand, even South Koreans don't want a unified Korean nation. They know how fvcked up the north really is, and rather the north change before they talk about unification. If both Beijing and Seoul can reach some consensus over how to deal with DPRK when the Kim Dynasty collapses, then there wouldn't be any reason for a conflict. Finland survived as a democratic neutral country. I see no reason why North Korea can't be like that after the demise of Kim Dynasty.
 
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Oregon       11/15/2010 1:39:47 PM
Remember Folks, the division of Korea is artificial as it was imposed by the U.S.S.R and the U.S.  Koreans have a longer civilization than the Japanese by about a 1000 years. IF you converse with Koreans and go to Korea. IT is quite CLEAR that South Koreans DO NOT feel threatened by North Korea. South Koreans never refer to themselves as South Koreans, but as KOREANS. Even, all the maps in South Korea show a Korea with no dividing line. They actually feel more threatened by China and the U.S. For different reasons both the U.S. and China do not want the reunification of the peninusla after Korea was forcibly divided by the U.S. and the Soviet Union. The vast majority of South Koreans even believe it was their own government that sunk the Cheonan earlier this year, not North Korea as the media claims. 

But, I like to say one more thing about North Korea. North Korea has large deposits of IRON, URANIUM, GOLD, COAL, and some analysts believe that there are CONSIDERABLE amounts of RARE EARTH minerals as well. North Korea borders both CHINA and RUSSIA, which means close proximity to build pipelines to sources of natural gas and OIL. FOLKS, THE IMPLICATIONS CAN NEVER BE CLEARER. South Korea would be the most to gain from reunification. The Oriental style of engineered capitalism is being intensified in a shorter amount of time as each country adopts it. First Japan, then Korea, then China, then Vietnam, and I have to include Singapore as well. In North Korea, this system will be even more intensive and Korea will have control over something that Japan lacked that prevented it from becoming a global superpower, Natural Resources. Combine this with Korea's ability to produce Nuclear weapons. And you have a fundamental shift in East Asian relations and the birth of a new SUPERPOWER. Yes, that's right a SUPERPOWER. Korea can never become like China nor the U.S., but it will forever alter the global chess game that is being played currently.
     But back to the G20 that just took place in Seoul, I believe there is clear momentum towards a common currency for the G20. It is the only way to prevent currency wars and eliminate one facet of the trade imbalance problem. But who can lead an administration to lead this change, U.N. Secretary General Ban, Ki-moon's term is up in 2012, and by the looks of it Obama as well. 2012, yes that's right...the Mayans did get it right...2012(lOl). Welcome to the new world of King Obama.
 
     North Koreans are also predicting a bold and prosperous state in 2012.  It is a very ominous year. The Secretary General of the U.N. is Korean and his term is ending in 2 years (i think), something big might happen and maybe China will make some military moves.  But if the U.N. Secretary General, being a Korean, has any leverage I see that ultimately there will be a reunified peninsula 2 years from now.
 
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Oregon       11/15/2010 1:57:59 PM
Remember Folks, the division of Korea is artificial as it was imposed by the U.S.S.R and the U.S.  Koreans have a longer civilization than the Japanese by about a 1000 years. IF you converse with Koreans and go to Korea. IT is quite CLEAR that South Koreans DO NOT feel threatened by North Korea. South Koreans never refer to themselves as South Koreans, but as KOREANS. Even, all the maps in South Korea show a Korea with no dividing line. They actually feel more threatened by China and the U.S. For different reasons both the U.S. and China do not want the reunification of the peninusla after Korea was forcibly divided by the U.S. and the Soviet Union. The vast majority of South Koreans even believe it was their own government that sunk the Cheonan earlier this year, not North Korea as the media claims. 

But, I like to say one more thing about North Korea. North Korea has large deposits of IRON, URANIUM, GOLD, COAL, and some analysts believe that there are CONSIDERABLE amounts of RARE EARTH minerals as well. North Korea borders both CHINA and RUSSIA, which means close proximity to build pipelines to sources of natural gas and OIL. FOLKS, THE IMPLICATIONS CAN NEVER BE CLEARER. South Korea would be the most to gain from reunification. The Oriental style of engineered capitalism is being intensified in a shorter amount of time as each country adopts it. First Japan, then Korea, then China, then Vietnam, and I have to include Singapore as well. In North Korea, this system will be even more intensive and Korea will have control over something that Japan lacked that prevented it from becoming a global superpower, Natural Resources. Combine this with Korea's ability to produce Nuclear weapons. And you have a fundamental shift in East Asian relations and the birth of a new SUPERPOWER. Yes, that's right a SUPERPOWER. Korea can never become like China nor the U.S., but it will forever alter the global chess game that is being played currently.
     But back to the G20 that just took place in Seoul, I believe there is clear momentum towards a common currency for the G20. It is the only way to prevent currency wars and eliminate one facet of the trade imbalance problem. But who can lead an administration to lead this change, U.N. Secretary General Ban, Ki-moon's term is up in 2012, and by the looks of it Obama as well. 2012, yes that's right...the Mayans did get it right...2012(lOl). Welcome to the new world of King Obama.
 
     North Koreans are also predicting a bold and prosperous state in 2012.  It is a very ominous year. The Secretary General of the U.N. is Korean and his term is ending in 2 years (i think), something big might happen and maybe China will make some military moves.  But if the U.N. Secretary General, being a Korean, has any leverage I see that ultimately there will be a reunified peninsula 2 years from now.
 
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Mikko       11/15/2010 2:01:32 PM
Too much to lose for the PRC, ain' gonna happen. Situation can't be compared to participation in the Korean War as the Chinese are now very involved with - and dependant upon - international trade. Consequences of taking direct action against US allies in the region far outweigh the strategic importance of North Korea.
 
A non-democratic country can afford hurting economy and chances of individuals if the population can be directed towards a shared goal. But the Chinese are too many and too powerful to be directed in a meaningful way to anything else than a multi-million-casualty war with a perceived enemy. You can't shut down trade to skirmish with US, Japan and South Korea for the sake of such a small matter.
 
Of course there are plenty of plans on missile strikes against US bases and so forth. That's a plausible scenario in many historical settings but not in the world we are living in. Maybe I miss something about the Chinese rationale but I've been taught to believe PRC leaders are cunning folk.
 
What do you expect from thousands of generals, colonels and majors wanting to find something on which to use their education? They draw up plans on just about everything, that's what officers with no proper wars to fight do. They probaby have a plan ready for invading Newfoundland for that matter. Where you have a huge army you have a huge amount of useless energy. The bigger the budget and emphasis on military, the more useless stuff they come up with.
 
M
 
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phead128       11/15/2010 4:44:22 PM
As opposed to 1950, China (and Russia) today are among the P5 in the UNSC.
 
What makes you think UN will be more relevant to solving the Korean crisis with China (and Russia) now a member of the P5 of the UNSC.
 
UN couldn't do reunify Korea with France, UK, ROC (Taiwan) and US dominating the P5 UNSC with USSR boycotting the UN because it's refusal to admit Red China to the original seat of China that is occupied by ROC (Taiwan).

It's certainly not going to reunify Korea now with Red China (and Russia) on P5 UNSC board, and Ban Ki Moon depends heavily on courting China for his re-election bid if he choose to submit one in 2012.
 
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phead128       11/15/2010 4:54:59 PM
China has tons of $$$ ($2.6 trillion dollars worth of cash waiting to be invested)
A reunified Korea needs at least $3 trillion dollars equalize the impoverished North to Southern standards.
 
If S. Korea gives China unrestricted investment rights in a reunified Korea and banish the US imperialists from her land, then perhaps China will conceded the pariah state to S. Korean control.
 
South Korea gives China control of the Korean economy in return for not intervening in defense of N. Korea.
 
 
or China might just outright extend the status quo...... or perhaps conquer Korea and establish a pro-Beijing gov't that is not ruled by Kim dynasty or Pro-US leadership.
 
I like the sound of the latter one.
 
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Photon       11/15/2010 6:06:20 PM
I think the most likely outcome, in case of Pyonyang folding, is for Beijing to prop a new regime north of the DMZ.  Outright annexation carries diplomatic liabilities.  China has a plenty of domestic issues to deal with and adding tens-of-millions of starving North Koreans into its list of problems just does not make much sense.  Better to have nominally independent North Korea; just make sure whoever is in charge of Pyongyang respects Chinese business interests.  As long as North Korea has its own capital and flag to wave, humanitarian crisis within North Korea is strictly North Korea's problem, not China's.  Chinese military power can be use to 'guarantee' North Korean 'independence' (independence from ROK/US, that is!).  Meanwhile, the US is in no shape to risk a hot war with China over the peninsula.
 
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davidhughes       11/15/2010 6:45:59 PM
All very interesting and no doubt encouraging to those who want to increase the number or airfields, bases etc etc at enormous cost (to everybody else). All this is is reminiscent as the endless number of plans produced by the US military between the wars against every conceivable enemy - no matter how unlikely - shall we hit Taiwan or South Korea or Indo-China? - there are announced plans for all. It is a way of life of military leaders to make, leak and/or announce plans to justify their existence and salaries. The trick is to determine which of the endless (and endlessly cited) plans are the most likely and therefore against which precious and limited resources must be deployed - those of Iran or Venezuala or China or Pakistan or Brazil or Russia or even Canada?
 
 
 
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