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Air Defense: Save The New Stuff For The Chinese
   Next Article → LEADERSHIP: Militia In The Dark
February 20, 2010: India, alarmed at Chinese claims on its northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh, will deploy six of the first eight squadrons of its new Akash air defense system there. Akash is Indian designed, developed and manufactured, and is modeled on the older, but successful, Russian SA-6 system. Akash is meant to replace some very old Russian air defense systems India is still using. Each 1,543 pound Akash missile has a 132 pound warhead, a range of 27 kilometers and can kill targets as high as 49,000 feet, or as low as 66 feet. Each squadron has eight launchers (each carrying three missiles).

China has increased its diplomatic and military moves on Arunachal Pradesh in the last year. Arunachal Pradesh has long been claimed as part of Tibet. But when Tibet was an independent nation a century ago, it agreed that Arunachal Pradesh was part of India. This is what angers China, as Britain was running India at the time, and was believed to have pressured Tibet to surrender Arunachal Pradesh. Currently, Arunachal Pradesh  has a population of about a million people, spread among 84,000 square kilometers of mountains and valleys. The Himalayan mountains, the tallest in the world, are the northern border of Arunachal Pradesh, and serve as the border, even if currently disputed, with China. This is a really remote part of the world, and neither China nor India want to go to war over the place. But the two countries did fight a short war, up in these mountains, in 1962. The Indians lost, and are determined not to lose if there is a rematch.

China has built up its military forces on its side of the border, and India only began to play catch-up when China went public with claims on Arunachal Pradesh.

Next Article → LEADERSHIP: Militia In The Dark
  

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cwDeici       2/20/2010 2:19:54 PM
I hope it does not come to blows and that if it does it is limited.
 
It will be interesting though, the two militaries have not been actively matched for nearly half a century. Statistical and conventional wisdom indicates the gap in equipment, training and doctrine has widened in China's favor but India has been accelerating lately to close in on China's speed. India however maintains greater experience in military actions on land, air and sea.
 
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cwDeici       2/20/2010 2:22:47 PM
(would be interesting though)
It seems quite likely there will be tough diplomacy or a skirmish over the next decade or two. This seems to be the earliest preliminary stage of the PR footwork to strengthen the claim.
However, it being a fairly weak claim as Tibet surrendered the region (though under pressure) and the West being as anti-military as it is such a PR campaign is likely to garner limited success or fail.
 
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Nanheyangrouchuan       2/20/2010 9:41:15 PM
I don't think this is just a border war.  China would have much less to lose in a war over Taiwan, even just by shelling it into submission.  Any risk of nukes would be limited to tatical and be at sea, whether air detonated or nuke depth charges (which Taiwan has).
 
But invading another nuke power like India carries far more risks. The US has a base there and Russia would certainly provide intel support, probably hardware as well.  If India feels they are going to lose the province, they may pull out the nukes, not just tacticals, but point some at Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, HK and the Three Gorges dam.  Three Gorges might survive one small nuke but not a medium range MIRV.
 
No, China is desperate for water, dying of thirst because of idiotic policies and lack of environmental protection enforcement. The Brahmaputra and the surrounding farmland is the target, not a line or even the refugee Tibetan government, they can just relocate deeper into India.
 
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RtWingCon    PR not an issue   2/21/2010 4:51:34 AM

"This seems to be the earliest preliminary stage of the PR footwork to strengthen the claim.

However, it being a fairly weak claim as Tibet surrendered the region (though under pressure) and the West being as anti-military as it is such a PR campaign is likely to garner limited success or fail." from prev poster
 
Like you say this may be the groundwork of PR, but I would have to say they will fail to persuade any reasonable minds(despots not included). The west isn't keen on the occupation of Tibet to begin with and now China wants to lay claim to another part of region that was once part of Tibet-that's a hard sell. They'll have to invade it to take it and India is whole lot stronger than 50yrs ago. India would be on her own in the conflict, but I doubt nukes would get involved due to the conflict being regionalized. If the Chinese wanted to march on Mumbai, then maybe nukes would be a factor. Then again does China want to take that calculated risk. A wandering thought, is China getting antsy to use it's newfound military might? If so, Arunachal Pradesh would provide a better test and proving ground for its military and organization before trying to take on Taiwan. Afterall, a conflict in that region with India would remove other factors such as oh maybe a US carrier fleet. One third of the world's population in a war is still a scary thought.http://www.strategypage.com/CuteSoft_Client/CuteEditor/Images/emkulou.gif" alt="" /> 
 
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WarNerd       2/21/2010 7:14:24 PM

Any risk of nukes would be limited to tatical and be at sea, whether air detonated or nuke depth charges (which Taiwan has).

Interesting, can you provide any supporting documentation for the claim that Taiwan has nuclear weapons?
 
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WarNerd       2/21/2010 7:52:42 PM
The main problem and limitation for both sides is logistical because of the relative isolation of the region and the ruggedness of the border terrain.  China currently appears ahead in this area because of their new rail line.  If India responds in kind (either with a railroad to the area or decent roads) the positive economic impact on the area could be substantial, especially if the 'war' is limited to diplomatic notes and military exercises.
 
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Photon       2/24/2010 3:35:41 AM
If the ongoing Sino-Indian tension escalates, China may end up getting unanticipated bites.  Basic human psychological tendencies:
 
1.  The loser of a past conflict remembers and cherishes it well.
 
2.  The winner, because he has gotten his way before, expects to get away again, especially if the loser appears to be behind in force deployments and logistics today.
 
3.  The loser can bite and sting quite a bit in the next round, because losing again, let alone showing signs of weakness, is politically unacceptable.
 
4.  India 2010 is not India 1960:  The former is nowhere as politically 'neutral' or 'isolated' as have been in the past.
 
5.  Open hostilities will result in tainting China's images more than that of India.  If it were not for the prevailing 'business as usual' attitude, there is not a whole lot of reasons out there to cover up China's ugly domestic problems.
 
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