The Perfect Soldier: Special Operations, Commandos, and the Future of Us Warfare by James F. Dunnigan
More Books by James Dunnigan
|
Dirty Little Secrets
Why Iraq is Surrounded by Enemies
by James Dunnigan
August 9, 2005
Discussion Board on this DLS topic
Who’s winning in Iraq? The government is getting stronger. Each month, more
areas of the country become “safe.” But “safe” is a relative term in Iraq. The
northern Kurdish areas, and most of the Shia Arab south have been free of
constant violence for over a year. The areas being made “safe” now are towns and
neighborhoods in central and western Iraq. Iraq’s neighbors, who are all hostile
for different reasons, have come to accept the prospect of an Iraqi democracy
controlled by the Shia Arab majority.
Each of the neighbors is hostile for a different reason. The Turks are afraid
that the Iraq government will give the Iraqi Kurds too much autonomy, and
tolerate Iraqi Kurds supporting Kurdish separatism in Turkey. As far as the
Turks are concerned, this is already happening. While most Iranians want the
Iraqi democracy to succeed, the Islamic conservatives who run Iran do not. The
Iranian hard liners are encouraging and supporting the Iraqi Arab Shia radicals
to try and take control of the government. This is a long shot, and troublesome
even as it fails.
To the south, Kuwait wants Iraq to settle down, but
cannot forget that even a democratic Iraq will probably still believe Kuwait
should be part of Iraq. Some Kuwaitis believe that Iraq should be kept weak,
lest there be another invasion of Kuwait. Saudi Arabia would rather have the
Iraqi Sunni Arabs running Iraq, preferably as a dictatorship. The Saudis will
always want that, but in the meantime, they have to work with the current Iraqi
government because Islamic radicals are fighting democrats in Iraq as well as
royalists in Saudi Arabia. Jordan is in a situation similar to Saudi Arabia,
made worse by the fact that Jordan was always, for economic reasons, been an
ally of Saddam Hussein. Syria is another dictatorship that does not feel
comfortable with a democracy next door. Syria’s situation is further complicated
by the fact that Syria is run by non-Sunni Arabs, who belong to the Alawite
sect. Moreover, the Syrian leadership share a common political philosophy with
the deposed Saddam Hussein government. There have long been feuding Iraqi and
Syrian factions of the Baath party. While Syria was a long time foe of Saddam
because of this, they would prefer to have an Arab dictator (preferably Shia)
running Iraq. But for the moment, Syria will be nice to whatever government runs
Iraq.
Most of Iraq’s neighbors would like coalition forces out of Iraq,
now, so that they can interfere on the side of their favorite faction, in an
Iraqi civil war. That could get very ugly, but one thing most of Iraq’s
neighbors agree on, anything is preferable to an Iraqi democracy.
|
|
