The Perfect Soldier: Special Operations, Commandos, and the Future of Us Warfare by James F. Dunnigan
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Dirty Little Secrets
Al Qaeda and Blowback
by Harold C. Hutchison
November 5, 2005
Discussion Board on this DLS topic
Where is terrorism going? It's going back to
where it has long been; local. Like politics, all (or certainly most) terrorism
is local. International terrorism is rare, and usually has a national
organization providing needed support (the KGB during the Cold War, al Qaeda in
Afghanistan during the 1990s.)
What the remnants of al Qaeda are trying to do now is recreate the Anarchist
movement of a century ago, where local groups tried to act with an
international purpose. Back then, the Anarchists stayed in touch via letters,
and especially the vibrant daily newspapers which, using an efficient
international telegraph system and the new wire services (AP, UPI, Reuters,
Etc.) had reporters just about everywhere on the planet. Not quite CNN,
but close enough. The Anarchists were idealistic, obsessed and murderous young
men (and a few women) determined to remake the world. Sound familiar?
The Internet makes a difference by speeding things up. A century ago,
international mail took weeks to get delivered. Today, delivery time is a
second, or less. This makes it easier for some kind of international network to
be created. But it also makes it easy for police to keep tabs on budding
terrorists. While the more astute terrorists (or wannabes) use some simple
techniques to keep their identity, and Internet activities, secret, most of the
pro-terrorist crowd are easily tracked and identified. This has not been an
entirely positive thing for police. They now know that al Qaeda, and local
terrorists, have become the new folk heroes. The bad guys know how to play on
the Hollywood image, posturing with words and pictures on websites. In many
parts of the world, manufacturers of t-shirts and other pro-terrorist
paraphernalia are not far behind. Recruiting is not as easy as you might think,
for the most willing volunteers tend to be the least skilled. But there is a
source of manpower for the murder minded terrorists.
In the long run, the short period where al Qaeda was a truly international
terrorist organization, with headquarters and training facilities in
Afghanistan, will turn out to be a very negative thing for the terrorists. The
911 attacks, and the launching of the war on terror, caused many nations to
cooperate in going after terrorists. Suddenly, there were a lot fewer places a
terrorist could flee to. Before 911, there were many countries that would give
refuge to a terrorist, if these nasty fellows simply declared themselves
freedom fighters fleeing oppression in the Old Country. That doesn’t work any
more. Worse, most nations are sharing counter-terrorist techniques.
While terrorism has been forced to go local, counter-terrorism has gone
international. How is this playing out? Deaths among terrorists are up,
terrorist attacks down (at least in the West). Most of the terrorist groups
represent real grievances, but the terrorists have been constantly defeated in
their home countries. Now, their attacks on foreigners have merely created an
even more formidable coalition to oppose them. This means that local terrorists
are having a harder time. Al Qaeda, rather than making terrorism deadlier, has
made it more vulnerable.
September 29, 2005: The fight against terrorism in Iraq has drawn lots of the
headlines and protests, but one of the other theaters where al Qaeda is being
fought is the Horn of Africa. This is one battle that al Qaeda has been losing,
much as it is losing in Iraq and Afghanistan. Joint Task Force Horn of Africa
is also training local military forces, including the Kenyan and Yemeni Coast
Guards. Military-to-military training has been going on with Yemen, and is
starting with Uganda and Tanzania. One of the few places they have not had much
luck is Eritrea, which has been locked in a dispute with Yemen over the Hanish
Islands in the Red Sea and which fought a two-and-a-half year border war with
Ethiopia.
In the Horn of Africa, the major “combat units” are not special forces or
infantry. Instead, these forces tend to be doctors, engineers, and even
veterinarians. Very rarely are shots fired in anger. Instead, soldiers are
often spending their time drilling a well in Djibouti or carrying out other
projects that the local leaders think will help make life for their villagers
easier – like building libraries and hospitals. Another initiative in Nairobi,
by the name of Golden Spear, coordinates disaster relief in the region. These
efforts today might not seem like much, but the effect is huge.
This theater of the war has a grand total of 1,400 personnel operating in an
area five times larger than Iraq and Afghanistan combined. Yet, these 1,400
personnel are dealing al Qaeda serious strategic blows in a major offensive
that is just as important as those in Iraq and Afghanistan. The organizations
that have affiliated with al Qaeda need recruits, due to the fact that they are
suffering heavy casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan. Villagers who have had
their goats treated by American veterinarians or who have seen American
soldiers spend five months drilling a well, are not likely to flock to
the banner of al Qaeda. They will be just as likely to tell the
Americans, who came to help them improve their lives, that there have
been terrorist recruitment efforts. The recruiters will then be followed, and
more intelligence will be acquired before various al Qaeda cells get rolled up.
The war on terrorism has taken many forms – some of it is major combat as has
been seen in Iraq and Afghanistan. In other places, it has been cooperation
with local authorities, as has happened in Yemen. In the case of the Horn of
Africa, a region is being systematically closed off to al Qaeda with few – if
any – shots being fired through “nation-building” five years ago. Here, the
battle is for hearts and minds, and it is being decisively won without fanfare
or even notice, yet this offensive and the battles fought are arguably as
important as any fought in Iraq or Afghanistan.
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