The Perfect Soldier: Special Operations, Commandos, and the Future of Us Warfare by James F. Dunnigan
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Dirty Little Secrets
Al Qaeda's Video Wars
by James Dunnigan
November 5, 2004
Discussion Board on this DLS topic
Osama bin Laden released a video tape message to the world, which was broadcast on October 29th. Bin Laden’s message appeared to have more to do with al Qaeda, and European, politics, than with the "war" against the United States. This makes sense, as bin Laden is losing ground, within al Qaeda, to Iraq based Abu Musab al Zarqawi (who is not nearly as bright as bin Laden, but it getting a lot more publicity). Al Qaeda has been something of a virtual organization since they got run out of Afghanistan in late 2001. These days, al Qaedas biggest asset is media exposure, and Zarqawi is getting a lot more than bin Laden.
Bin Laden talks a good game in his latest video, but he doesn't really know squat about how the outside (of Arab countries) world works. His reference to al Qaeda attacking the United States in “self defense” is part of a popular Arab illusion that the West, led by the U.S., is determined to conquer the Middle East and steal the oil.
His speech tried to make it sound like Bush was weak and inept, with the implication being that Kerry would be a more aggressive leader in the fight against terrorism. In reality, going into Iraq made the Middle East less hospitable for al Qaeda (look at Saudi Arabia and Kuwait these days). Bin Laden may want Kerry as president, in the hope that Kerry would pull American troops out of Iraq before the place had settled down (giving al Qaeda shot at taking over). That is very unlikely, given the mood of American public opinion.
Bin Laden’s tape did reveal some interesting details. It looked like it was made in a studio, but it was probably made in a remote part of Pakistan, Afghanistan, or even Iran. Some of those walled compounds up in the hills, owned by local strong men (often drug lords) are quite luxurious inside. All you can see on the outside are the satellite dishes, armed guards and late model SUVs coming and going. Bin Laden is still a hunted man, not a leader in control of his own fate, and able to do as he wishes.
Bin Laden compared the United States to other Arab governments, which was an interesting statement. For over a decade, bin Laden has made it quite plain that he considers all Arab government's illegitimate because they are not run according to Islamic principles (the al Qaeda version). Remember, al Qaeda's ultimate goal is to make the entire planet Islamic. These guys seriously believe that stuff. Al Qaeda's basic motivation is world conquest, which is something you'd expect from a fictional cartoon character, not the leader of a social movement that is supposed to be taken seriously.
Despite strenuous efforts by al Qaeda, they have not been able to pull off another attack in the United States since September 11, 2001. Think about it, with all their members, al Qaeda can't scrounge up a few sticks of dynamite, make a bomb vest, get a volunteer, and set off a lethal explosion among lunch time Wall Street crowds. The fact is that al Qaeda is overrated. They are dangerous, but not nearly as dangerous as the people they are up against.
And bombs remain al Qaeda’s principal weapon. The United States is better prepared now, than we were three years ago, for those kinds of attacks. But there is still a shortage of training and equipment for nuclear, chemical or biological weapons. There is more fear of the possibility that al Qaeda might pull off another spectacular attack, this time using chemical or nuclear material. That fear is al Qaeda's most potent weapon at the moment, for their actual capabilities have proved to be more limited than predicted. Thus a videotape of largely empty threats is considered a major al Qaeda operation.
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