The Perfect Soldier: Special Operations, Commandos, and the Future of Us Warfare by James F. Dunnigan
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Why Hezbollah Wants Another War
by James Dunnigan
July 10, 2011
Israel believes that Hezbollah is preparing for another war with Israel. Like the last one, it would be started by a Hezbollah attack on Israel. But this time around, the war would be for the purpose of reducing political pressure on the Assad clan, which has ruled Syria for decades and is threatened by a growing public uprising. A war with Israel would, normally, demand that all Arabs get behind the war effort. There is some doubt, even in Arab circles, that this would work if Hezbollah attacked Israel now. For one thing, Hezbollah was created by, and subsidized by, Iran. Three decades of Iranian support has turned Hezbollah into the most powerful religious militia in Lebanon. Iran sponsored Hezbollah in the 1980s to aid fellow Shia Moslems during the Lebanese civil war. When that conflict ended in 1990s, Iran continued beefing up Hezbollah. Thus Hezbollah is seen as a tool of non-Arab Iran, and an enemy of Arabs (at least the majority Sunni Moslem Arabs). Same with the Assad dictatorship in Syria, which is a Shia minority, subsidized by Iran, that is running a Sunni majority country. Because of this, Hezbollah has said publically, that it will not enter Syria to aid the Assads. But according to Syrian rebels, Hezbollah is already there, secretly, running death squads and doing other dirty work for the Assads. Iranians are also there, doing the same dirt. Hezbollah needs Syria, to provide a way to move Iranian weapons in, and provide a place to retreat to if Israel gets really aggressive.
In Egypt, demonstrations against the military government intensify. Many Egyptians believe that the revolution is not over, and that most of those responsible for triggering the revolution (via corruption and poor governance) are still in power, and plan to manipulate the upcoming elections to stay in power. The Egyptian armed forces are seen as at the center of this conspiracy. The generals, for their part, blame the United States and Israel for the continued unrest, especially the growing violence against Egyptian Christians.
Israel is again suggesting that Egypt take responsibility for Gaza. Egypt does not want this, because it has been Arab policy not to accept Palestinians as migrants, and integrate them, but to keep them separate as temporary refugees (who will eventually return to what is now Israel). The Palestinians in Gaza have ruled themselves since 2005, when Israel withdrew. But by 2007, Gaza was being run by Islamic terror group Hamas, and at war with Israel. Egypt wants no part of this, but there it is, right on their border.
The Arab Spring rebellions has also brought forth (in Arab nations) calls for reconsidering relations (or lack thereof) with Israel. This sort of thing tends to come from the smaller Arab Gulf states, who have long been more entrepreneurial, and eager to do business with Israel. These Arabs have also led the criticism of Palestinians for corruption and self-destructive behavior in general. The latest public discussion centered around the Arab lack of research. For example, it was pointed out that Israel spends more than twice as much on research than all Arab nations combined. As a result, Israel has obtained 20 times more patents than all Arab countries combined. While Arab nations say they encourage more education, it is apparently not being done effectively. At this point, there is usually a call for opening up to Israel, and greater cooperation in the areas of research and education. This sort of talk is usually shouted down by other Arabs, but the shouting has been less intense, and convincing, over the last decade.
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