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The Putin Paradox
by James Dunnigan
November 29, 2014

In eastern Ukraine over 200 people have been killed in Donbas since the September ceasefire. Over 4,000 have died there since Russia began military operations (via pro-Russian rebels or Russian soldiers) in April. Russia was warned by the West that if the pro-Russian rebels held their election on November 2nd (to establish a separate state) and Russia recognized it, this would be a violation of international law and would bring more sanctions. Russia used the same tactics to annex Crimea from Ukraine earlier this year and parts of Georgia in 2008. Russia blames the United States for all the anti-Russian attitudes among its neighbors. President Putin and many Russians see America as continuing the Cold War by conspiring to weaken Russia. Many Russians, however, note that their neighbors don’t agree and see Russia returning to its traditional paranoid attitudes about all foreigners. These Russians realize that there are bad habits in Russia (aside from tolerance for corruption and outlaw behavior) that need to be changed before Russia can move forward. But at the moment the traditionalists are in charge and it’s paranoia as usual. The average Russian feels the impact of all this with shortages and high inflation, all brought on by the sanctions and the plunging price of oil. An obvious sign of this is the value of the ruble against Western currencies. So far this year the ruble has lost 30 percent of its value versus those currencies, making most imported goods noticeably more expensive. Russians are less able to afford overseas vacations and those that do go find that Russians are not as welcome as they used to be. Russian airlines are seeing foreign traffic decline as foreign passengers switching to non-Russian airlines when travelling into and out of Russia.

The Donbas rebels demand independence for the five million people in Donbas areas that the rebels control. The Ukraine government refuses to accept that but is willing to negotiate some autonomy. Most Ukrainians, and many Russians believe the Russian government wants to annex Donbas and nothing less will do. Russia quickly discovered that seizing Donbas was going to be a lot more difficult than anticipated. Part of the problem was the unexpectedly robust resistance by Ukrainian forces. There’s a lot more popular support in Ukraine for resisting the Russian aggression than there is inside Russia for keeping it up. In fact most of the eight million ethnic Russians in Ukraine are hostile to the Russian aggression and Russia has managed to unite Ukrainians like nothing else before. The Ukrainian anger towards Russia is real and Putin has reason to be worried about it.

President Putin recently told the new American ambassador that the United States should not interfere in Russian affairs. This warning covers a lot of issues, including things like Russian neighbors joining NATO or American cultural influences in Russia. Putin has considerable popular support for his demands on America and the West. Most Russians back rebuilding the old Russian (first Czarist then Soviet) empire. There are similar levels of support for keeping foreign influences out of Russia. This includes such standbys as Roman Catholics, new religions in general and concepts like true democracy. It is unclear if Putin accepts, or even acknowledges that the demographic support for these ideas is against him. That is, younger Russians are not enthusiastic about a new Russian empire (they realize that the empire was always expensive and a lot of trouble) or hostile to foreign influences (which have benefitted Russia, when they managed to get in). But all politics is local and in this time (early 21st century) and this place (Russia) Putin is backing ideas that make him a very popular politician to the people who matter to him most (the majority). Russia may be turning back into a dictatorship, but a certain amount of democracy has already infected Russian culture and can be eliminated only with great difficulty. Russians have also become accustomed to a level of prosperity not seen in Russia for over a century. Putin is already taking heat for how the Western sanctions are threatening the Russian economy. This is Putin’s major vulnerability, that and Russian aversion to another major war. The specter of World War II still lies heavily on Russians. More than any other nation, Russia suffered the most from that conflict, with 18 percent of all Soviets being killed and the economy crippled. It will take another generation or two for that trauma to recede. For the moment any Russian leader who tries to drag the country into another major war will see their approval ratings plummet and popular support evaporate. Putin is playing a dangerous game, more for himself and Russia than for the rest of the world. That’s because Russia counts for much more than when it was an empire. And that’s a memory that will only fade with time.

The Ukrainian aggression is costing Russia more than money, it is also severely damaging political and personal relationships built up with great effort after the Cold War ended. With the loss of those personal connections Russia is throwing away easy access to economic opportunities and diplomatic support. Russia is feeling the economic cost now, and if China turns hostile (which it eventually will), Russia will have few allies to rely on. Even India, long a reliable friend, is backing away. That leaves Russia with Iran, Syria, North Korea, Cuba and several other international outcasts to depend on.



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