Suffer Bravely And Silently For The Motherland
by James Dunnigan
January 9, 2016
An opinion poll conducted in late November showed that 75 percent of Russians believe the government should improve its relations with the West (including the United States). Nearly as many (70 percent) want relations with Ukraine improved. Fewer (56 percent) felt Russia was isolated as a result of all the sanctions and 65 percent believed Russia should continue its present policies. Russians still had negative attitudes towards the U.S. (70 percent), the EU (60 percent) and Ukraine (63 percent). In other words while most Russians want improved foreign relations but also believe the bad relations are not the fault of Russia.
The feud with Turkey (because a Turkish F-16 shot down a Russian Su-24 on November 24th) continues to escalate. This includes both countries holding the others merchant ships for more inspections. So far this involves eight Turkish ships stuck in Russian ports and 27 Russian ships stuck in Turkey. Since the 14th the Turkish internet has been crippled by a DDOS attack that is believed to be Russia based. Despite all the Russian economic sanctions the Turkish economy continues to grow which the Russian declines.
The Russian presence in Syria and general agreement that ISIL (al Qaeda in Iraq and the Levant) must be destroyed has led the United States to agree with Russian demands that the war on ISIL include a halt in efforts to remove the Assad government in Syria. This, Russia insisted, was necessary to apply maximum pressure on ISIL. Russia intervened in Syria mainly to keep the Assads, who are long-time Russian allies and weapons customers, in power. Thus initially Russia did not attack ISIL unless ISIL was threatening Assad territory. But now Russia realizes that concentrating on ISIL can get other nations supporting Syrian rebels to ease the pressure on the Assads.
The Russian presence has forced the Americans to make other changes in Syria. For example the U.S. no longer sends manned aircraft into parts of northwest Syria covered by recently introduced Russian anti-aircraft systems. The Americans are apparently more concerned with an accidental Russian attack, which is seen as more likely than a deliberate one. Such an accident is more of a possibility because Russia and Turkey are feuding over who controls air space in the area, especially along the Turkish border. Since both the U.S. and Turkey operate F-16s an accidental attack on American aircraft is more than an imaginary risk as far as the Russians are concerned.
Russian air strikes in Syria continue to grow in frequency and intensity. These have killed nearly 2,000 people so far, about a third of the victims have been civilians. This is condemned as a war crime by many but is also why the Russian air strikes have been so much more effective than the larger number of American ones. Russia does not abort a strike because there is too much risk of civilian casualties. This makes ISIL more vulnerable to air attack than when just the Americans were handling it.
The UN believes that Russia is still sending supplies, weapons and reinforcements into eastern Ukraine (Donbas). This activity has been so blatant and persistent that even Russia now admits that it has military personnel in Donbas, but only for support functions. Ukraine has a lot of evidence that Russian combat troops are very active in Donbas although since October many appear to have been withdrawn, apparently because of the demand for them in Syria and the Caucasus. In both places Russia is dealing with Islamic terrorists. The UN also believes that over 9,000 have died (and 20,000 wounded) in Donbas since the fighting began there in early 2014.
Because Ukraine is joining the EU (European Union) free trade zone in 2016 Russia announced that once that happens Russia will cancel the 2011 free trade treaty with Ukraine. This will cause some economic damage to Ukraine but in the long run the EU deal will be much more beneficial. This marks a major move away from centuries old ties with Russia. For all that time Ukraine was a key economic component of the Tsarist and Soviet economies and the Ukrainian preference for Western links is what triggered the Russian aggression in the first place. Russia is not pleased with the EU deal. But then neither is the West because Ukraine is still cursed with other Tsarist and Soviet traits, namely corruption and poor government in general. Most Ukrainians know this and many Ukrainian politicians admit it is a problem. Curing the problem has so far proved impossible. The West warns that without progress in this area Ukraine will never prosper and will remain at risk of falling under Russian control again. Inside Ukraine that is a powerful incentive.
China and Russia recently signed 30 new military, diplomatic and economic deals. A positive spin was put on this, to hide the fact that both countries are in the midst of economic recessions. Trade between the two countries is down about a third since 2014. China is suffering from a self-inflicted recession, caused by corruption and inept management of the economy. Russia also has problems with corruption and bad economic policy but most of the damage has been done by low oil prices (which help China, a major oil importer) and economic sanctions in response to Russian aggression in East Europe. Russia is looking to China for economic help but because of Chinese economic problems and other shortcoming, the Chinese cannot provide all the Russia has lost due to international sanctions. In short both nations, although allies in opposing the west and supporting dictatorships in Syria, North Korea and Iran, have become economically weaker. Worse, Chinese diplomatic support for Russia in Syria amounts to nothing. Worse, the Russian presence in Syria has led to bad relations with Iran. The two countries cannot agree on tactics in Syria and Iran is beginning to withdraw some of its troops in protest.
Russian officials are feeling the economic heat personally as more Russian businessmen go public with their complaints and often point fingers at individuals responsible for bad economic policy and the economic pain most Russians are feeling. Russia leaders consider such public complaining treasonous but realize that so many Russian businessmen agree with the complaints that arresting the ones who do it publicly would be counter-productive. The government calls on Russians to do what Russians have always done and suffer bravely, and silently, for the motherland.
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