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A Particularly Costly Defeat For Iran
by James Dunnigan
November 28, 2015

November 2, 2015: The Shia rebels are not getting much help from their main supporter; Iran. While things are going well for Iran in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq the pro-Iran Shia rebels of Yemen are facing defeat. This comes despite help from Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah smugglers and military advisors. The worst aspect of all this is that the foreign intervention was all Arab (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain), using their modern Western weapons. The Arabs are succeeding, which does not bode well for Iran which has long (at least in the last few centuries) relied on its superior military capabilities to intimidate their Arab neighbors.  What’s going on in Yemen is diminishing that threat quite a bit. It makes Yemen a particularly costly defeat for Iran.

Nevertheless the Arab support in Yemen is not without problems. Most of the pro-government forces in Yemen are tribal militias. The Yemeni military has fallen apart since the unrest began in 2011. Back then the security forces contain 150,000 men. There were 80,000 troops in the armed forces, plus 70,000 in paramilitary forces (50,000 police and 20,000 in tribal militias that are on the payroll, an effort to keep them loyal.) Many (nearly half) of these security forces were very loyal to former president Saleh who was deposed in 2012 and played a role in persuading the Shia tribes up north to try and take over the country. Saleh himself is a Shia but always got along well with Sunni politicians and tribal leaders. As a result of this many military units sided with the Shia rebels or disbanded when the Shia tribes moved south in 2014. Some remained loyal to the government but they make up only about ten percent of the current government forces. There are somewhat more foreign troops and the bulk of the pro-government forces are tribal militias. Many of the Sunni tribes, especially in the south, have not sent men to fight the rebels yet and the government is working to persuade more tribes to do so. Cash helps but the Arab allies are wary of giving the government too much cash since Yemen has long been notorious for its high levels of corruption, even during a national crises. Nevertheless more tribes are sending contingents (from a few dozen to a few hundred men) to join the fight. A growing number of volunteers are coming from areas where the Shia rebels are fighting, and attacking civilians in the process. The Arab coalition offers some brief training for these volunteers, if only to improve communications and help prevent friendly fire, but some tribesmen refuse the training and are allowed to join the fight anyway. The Arab coalition has also persuaded (with cash and other favors) three more African nations (Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan) to send troops to join the coalition. Most of these (about 12,000) will come from Sudan. Eritrea is sending about 400 troops and Somalia is sending a token number of troops but is mainly allowing the Arab coalition to use Somali territory and air space The coalition needs more professional (and disciplined) troops to augment the often undependable and unpredictable tribal militias. Senegal has already agreed to send about two thousand troops. The Sudanese forces have been arriving over the last few weeks and are apparently already in action in Ibb and nearby provinces.

The UN has tried to arrange a peace or at least a ceasefire but the government insists that the Shia rebel fighters withdraw to their tribal lands (Saada province) in the far northwest first and the rebels refuse to consider that. So the fighting continues, even if the rebels lose more territory each week. The UN estimates that about 5,000 have died since March (when the heavy fighting began) and about half of those dead were civilians most of them victims of air attacks. Both sides have not given up completely on negotiations and the UN expects talks to resume by mid-November.

Pro-government forces continue to battle Shia rebels in Taez, capital of Taez province (inland, near the Red Sea coast). The Shia rebels continue to block roads and survive constant air attacks. As a result the population of Taez city is in bad shape because problems (with rebel roadblocks and ambushes) makes it difficult (but not impossible) to get supplies through. This has driven up prices in the city and caused shortages. The population of Taez is suffering.

The UAE has donated three AT-802 single engine turbo-prop patrol aircraft to the Yemeni Air Force and is training more pilots and maintenance personnel to operate these light bombers. There are already some Yemeni (or UAE) pilots operating the Yemeni AT-802s. These aircraft can use GPS and laser guided bombs.

Northeast of Taez the rebels are also holding out in Ibb province and northeast of Ibb there is a similar situation in Marib province. All this is part of a rebel effort to hold on to the capital (Saana) and force the government forces and their foreign allies to offer better surrender terms. That has not been successful and the leader (Saudi Arabia) of the Arab coalition backing the government forces believes that the Shia rebels will break and be defeated soon. Government forces have regained a lot of lost territory in nearby Baida province.

A lot of the economic damage has been from declines in illegal activities. For example there are fewer refugees coming across the Gulf of Aden from Somalia. This year is appears that only about 70,000 refugees will land, which is down nearly from over 100,000 a year in 2012. Another factor reducing the flow of refugees is the Saudi crackdown on illegal migrants. Over a million have been sent home since 2012, many to the countries that most of the refugees landing in Yemen come from. Yemen is still hosting over 500,000 refugees from Africa, most of them brought over by Yemeni smugglers (most get to Yemen via Somali and other African smugglers). About half the refugees are from Somalia. Hosting all these people is an economic burden, even if foreign aid is used to supply most of the refugee needs. But with worsening water shortages and growing unemployment, even the foreign aid does not solve all the problems the refugees cause. Yemen has been unable to get other countries to provide more help, in part because a lot of the aid is stolen by Yemenis. Many coastal communities are obviously suffering from the loss of income from the people smuggling. This despite the fact that the smugglers have picked up some business from Yemenis willing to pay to be smuggled to Africa.

ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) and AQAP (Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) are spending more time attacking the government than each other or the Shia rebels. These Islamic terrorist groups are seeking power in the Sunni south, where they can recruit and have some allies among tribes seeking to create a separate Yemen state in the south. This is all widely known and accepted in the south. Yet Iranian media pushes the idea that the Saudis are flying ISIL Islamic terrorists in from Syria to help with the fight against Shia rebels in the north. This sort of paranoia plays well throughout the Middle East and is regularly used against enemies local and foreign. For example many Moslems (Sunni and Shia) believe that ISIL is the creation of the United States and Israel. Meanwhile many southerners are fighting the Shia rebels only until the Shia are pushed out of the south. After that these southern tribesmen want to fight the government forces who oppose the partition of Yemen.



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