The Perfect Soldier: Special Operations, Commandos, and the Future of Us Warfare by James F. Dunnigan
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A Deal With The Devil
by James Dunnigan
June 29, 2015
Russia and Iran are both reconsidering their support for the Assad government. Despite the mess Russia has got itself into with Ukraine, Russian diplomats still have better contacts in the West and the Middle East and are now trying to negotiate a Russian-Iranian supervised peaceful political settlement of the Syrian civil war. The goal here is to prevent ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) from conquering the country. This is the goal few in the West want to admit is even under negotiation. Russia and Iran are both having financial problems (because of low oil prices and international sanctions) at home and support for the Assads is increasingly unpopular. Russia and Iran now appear willing to take the political hit at home for abandoning the Assads because less cash for the Assads means more money spent on the needs of Russian and Iranian civilians. Already Russia has pulled over a hundred technical advisors out of Syria although Iran has brought more people in. However Russia and Iran are not exactly in agreement how to carry out this removal of the Assads. All everyone can agree on is the need to stop ISIL and doing that as soon as possible. The longer ISIL exists in Syria the greater the chance that ISIL plans for terror attacks elsewhere (the West, Russia, Iran and the Middle East in general) are likely to become reality. The basic Russian plan is to make the Assads an offer they can’t refuse (immunity from prosecution and comfortable exile). If the Assads refuse the Russians can make all manner of nasty threats. Not just an end to weapons shipments and support but also active efforts to harm Assad assets and close associates overseas. Making this happen without the cooperation of the Assads and Iran is impossible. Moreover the fact that few nations want to make deals with the Assads at this point is another deal killer. Not after years of war crimes and decades of bad behavior by the Assads. As long as there is hope that ISIL can be stopped without such a deal with the devil nothing is likely to come of this Russian effort. But this is the Middle East, where the unthinkable often becomes reality.
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